The analyst might have been a bit too bullish on Perfect Medical Health Management Limited (HKG:1830), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.4% short of analyst estimates at HK$1.4b, and statutory earnings of HK$0.25 per share missed forecasts by 8.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Perfect Medical Health Management's sole analyst is for revenues of HK$1.35b in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 2.8% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 11% to HK$0.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of HK$1.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.32 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analyst is a lot more bearish about Perfect Medical Health Management's prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analyst has cut their price target 7.5% to HK$4.05.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Perfect Medical Health Management is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Perfect Medical Health Management. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Perfect Medical Health Management's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Perfect Medical Health Management that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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