YANCOAL AUSTRALIA(3668.HK):2Q24 SALES VOLUME +1%; FULL-YEAR TARGET STILL ACHIEVABLE
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA(3668.HK):2Q24 SALES VOLUME +1%; FULL-YEAR TARGET STILL ACHIEVABLE
Yancoal's (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates. Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation. We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.5bn of revenue in 2Q24 (-20% YoY; +3% QoQ). YAL maintains the full-year sales volume guidance unchanged. We still see chances for YAL to achieve the target range when volume growth improves in 2H24E. We have left our earnings forecast unchanged and will revisit our assumptions upon the release of 1H24 earnings in Aug. Maintain BUY and our NPV-based TP of HK$45. The stock remains attractive at 6.2x 2024E P/E and 8% yield.
煤炭的(澳洲煙煤) (YAL) 2Q24運行數據僅略低於我們的預期，由於天氣不利和操作因素如長壁移動和洗煤廠通行量等僅有1%的歸屬銷售量同比增長。混合ASP在2Q24同比下降20%，但符合市場趨勢和我們的預期。我們估計YAL在2Q24實現了約A$15億的營收(同比下降20%；環比增長3%)。YAL保持全年銷售量指引不變。我們仍然看到YAL在2H24E銷售增長改善時有機會實現目標區間。我們保持買入評級和給予基於淨現值的目標價爲HK$45的評級。該股票以6.2倍2024E市盈率和8%的股息率仍具吸引力。
Sales volume in 2Q24: Attributable sales volume of thermal coal / metallurgical coal was +3%/-17% YoY to 7.5mn/1mn tonnes in 2Q24. Total attributable sales volume increased 1% YoY to 8.6mn tonnes. In 1H24, the total attributable sales volume grew 17% YoY to 16.8mn tonnes, which accounted for 45% of our full-year estimate of 37.3mn tonnes (run rate in 1H23: 43.5%).
2Q24銷售量：2Q24動力煤/冶金煤的歸屬銷售量同比分別增長3%/-17%，達到750萬/100萬噸。總歸屬銷售量同比增長1%，達到860萬噸。在1H24中，總歸屬銷售量同比增長17%，達到1680萬噸，佔我們37.3mn噸全年預算的45%(1H23運行速率爲43.5%)。
ASP breakdown in 2Q24. Thermal ASP dropped 17% YoY (+2.5% QoQ) to A$163/t in 2Q24, within the range of GCNewc 6,000kCal (A$206/t or US$136/t) and API5 (A$134/t or US$89/t). Metallurgical ASP dropped 21% YoY to A$318/t (-5% QoQ), which was higher than the benchmarks as YAL's met ASP generally lagged behind the market price by a quarter. The blended ASP dropped 20% YoY (+0.5% QoQ) to A$181/t.
2Q24 ASP細分：2Q24動力ASP同比下降17%(環比上升2.5%)，達到A$163/t，處於GCNewc 6000kCal(A$206/t或US$136/t)和API5(A$134/t或US$89/t)的區間內。冶金ASP同比下降21%，至A$318/t(季環比下降5%)，高於基準，因爲YAL的冶金ASP通常落後市場價格一季度。混合ASP同比下降20%(季環比上升0.5%)，達到A$181/t。
Solid balance sheet. As at end-Jun, Yancoal had a gross cash balance of A$1.55bn. We expect Yancoal to maintain a strong net cash position going forward.
強健的資產負債表。 截至6月底，Yancoal擁有總現金餘額爲A$15.5億。我們預計Yancoal將繼續保持強大的淨現金頭寸。
2024E full-year guidance unchanged: (1) Attributable saleable production: 35-39mn tonnes (up 5%-17% YoY); (2) operating cash cost (excluding royalties): A$89-97/t (-7% to +1% YoY); (3) capex: A$650-800mn (up 5%-29% YoY).
2024E全年指引不變：（1）可銷售產量：35-39mn噸(同比增長5%-17%)；（2）營運成本(不包括版稅)：A$89-97/t(同比下降7%至+1%)；（3）資本支出：A$650-800mn(同比增長5%-29%)。
Key risks: (1) further decline in coal price; (2) rebound of unit cost; (3) unfavourable weather that affects production.
主要風險：（1）煤價進一步下降；（2）單位成本反彈；（3）影響生產的不利天氣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。