Since 2024, the sea freight rate has increased significantly, and as a result, the short-term profitability of export enterprises has attracted considerable market attention.
Zhitong Finance and Economics APP learned that Guolian Securities released a research report stating that since 2024, the sea freight rate has increased significantly, and as a result, the short-term profitability of export enterprises has attracted considerable market attention. According to the calculation of the sea freight value/cargo ratio of household appliances product categories in 2023 and the actual cost change of 8 sample export enterprises under the background of the significant increase in sea freight rates in 2021, it can be found that the enterprise cost is indeed under pressure after the freight rate goes up.
Since early 2024, sea freight rates have risen sharply.
Recently, top shipping companies such as Maersk and Mediterranean announced that they will adjust the export freight rates of major ports in Asia from July 1st. The highest FAK rate from Asia to Europe and the Middle East has reached $9,800/FEU. The sea freight is back to the situation at the beginning of 2024 and 2021. However, the reason for this increase is slightly different: 1) the impact of the Red Sea incident at the end of 2023 has continued, and shipping companies have been forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, creating a chain reaction of freight rates; 2) Tariff expectations in the United States and Europe have forced businesses to compete for containers to ship goods early, resulting in increased demand and tight shipping capacity, which has led to high sea freight rates. Against this backdrop, the market is more concerned about the sustainability of exports and the short-term impact on relevant corporate profits.
What is the impact of this round of sea freight on export categories?
Guolian Securities calculated the increase in sea freight rates on European and American routes based on the SCFI index, and compared the sea freight value/cargo ratio of household appliances products in 2023. On the basis of signing half of the goods with long-term prices, the sea freight levels of functional sofas, smart beds, office chairs, lifting desks, refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are approximately 9.29%/11.59%/10.07%/9.87%/6.42%/5.33%/3.50%, respectively. In addition, through sensitivity analysis, it was measured that the degree of sea freight rate increase has a relatively greater impact on the shipment/freight ratio of each category. Since home appliances have a lower unit volume value, they are relatively more affected by the increase in shipping costs.
How did enterprise sea freight rates actually change in 2021?
Due to factors such as quotation models and long-term price signings, there may be a considerable deviation between the sea freight rates that enterprises eventually bear and the degree of index increase. Choose Zhiou Technology, Saiv Corporation, Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp., Taotao Auto, Man Wah Hldgs, Craftsman Home, UE Furniture, and Cocreation Grass 8 companies to calculate their estimated value of the change in sea freight rates in 2021, and compare it with the actual disclosure value in the financial report. It can be found that the rate of increase in unit container freight rates of Taotao Auto in 2021 is only about one-third of the rate of index increase. Meanwhile, the larger the FOB, the higher the proportion of production capacity transferred overseas, and the higher the unit volume value of the goods of an enterprise, the smaller the actual change in value compared with the change in the freight rate index.
Risk warning: Risks of lower-than-expected consumer willingness, overseas operating environment and policy risks, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, and deviation risks in measurement.