CICC issued a report predicting that Macau's total gambling revenue in Q2 will increase by 24% YoY but decrease by 1.6% QoQ, recovering to 77% of Q2 2019's total gambling revenue. Among them, CICC expects the mid-market sector to be the first to recover, with a YoY increase of 29% and a QoQ flat trend equivalent to 112% of Q2 2019's level; the VIP sector declined by 4% YoY and 6% QoQ, reaching 23% of Q2 2019's level.

CICC predicts that industry EBITDA will increase by 23% YoY in Q2 but will decrease by 1% QoQ to $2.02 billion, recovering to 84% of Q2 2019's level. Considering that the overall gambling revenue performance remains strong and the reinvestment ratio environment is relatively stable.

The bank believes that MGM China (02282.HK) is expected to continue to lead the industry's total gambling revenue recovery in Q2. In terms of market share, it is expected that Yin Yu (00027.HK) and Melco Resorts and Entertainment (MLCO.US) will benefit from the increase in new properties under their management, and gain more of the total gambling revenue market share, while Wynn Macau (01128.HK) under the similar positioning and target customers of Studio City Phase II and Galaxy Phase III may lose the most total gambling revenue and mid-market gambling revenue market share.

CICC predicts that Macau's total gambling revenue will increase by 2% QoQ and 17% YoY in Q3. The bank lowered the industry's EBITDA forecast for the year by 3% and raised next year's EBITDA forecast by 1%, expected to recover to 90% and 106% of the 2019 level, respectively. Target price for Sands China (01928.HK) was revised down from HKD 32 to HKD 26.8, based on the potential impact of Londoner Phase II renovation project on profitability. The bank reiterated the "Outperform" rating for MGM China. The latest order of rankings is MGM China, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Resorts, Wynn Macau, Sands China, and SJM Holdings (00880.HK).