维持“增持”评 级，维持目标价至91.74 元。24 年Q1 需求开始逐步向上，进入强补库周期，Q2 无论是营收还是利润均超预期恢复，故上调24-25 年EPS 为1.06/1.62 元，并新增26 年EPS 为2.16 元（原值24-25 年EPS 为0.98/1.37 元）。公司AIoT 全面布局，下游各领域持续增长，考虑到数字SoC 行业中可比公司2024 年平均估值为52 倍PE，公司是国内为数不多进军8nm 的玩家，下游布局广泛，给予一定估值溢价，给予其2024 年86.5 倍PE，维持目标价至91.74 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024H1 performance is expected to increase year over year, and AIoT penetration is helping to increase performance. The company is a leading supplier of AIoT SoC chips and continues to develop end-side AIoT chips.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “Overweight” rating and maintain the target price at $91.74. Demand began to gradually rise in Q1 in '24 and entered a heavy inventory recovery cycle. In Q2, both revenue and profit recovered beyond expectations. Therefore, EPS for 24-25 was raised by 1.06/1.62 yuan, and the 26-year EPS was added to 2.16 yuan (the original 24-25 EPS was 0.98/1.37 yuan). The company has a comprehensive AIoT layout and continues to grow in various downstream fields. Considering that comparable companies in the digital SoC industry have an average valuation of 52 times PE in 2024, the company is one of the few domestic players to enter 8nm. The downstream layout is extensive, a certain valuation premium is given, 86.5 times PE in 2024, and the target price is maintained at 91.74 yuan.
The company's 2024H1 performance is expected to increase year over year, and AIoT penetration is helping to increase performance. According to the pre-performance increase announcement, the company's 2024H1 is expected to achieve net profit of 1.60 to 0.195 billion yuan, +543.15% to +686.29% year over year; it is expected to achieve non-net profit of 1.54 to 0.189 billion yuan, or +924% to +1160% year over year. In 2024 Q1, the company achieved net profit of 67.6497 million yuan, corresponding to the expected realized net profit of 0.92 to 0.127 billion yuan in 2024Q2, +112.72% ~ +194.94%, +35.77% ~ +88.25% month-on-month, and expected to deduct non-net profit of 0.88 to 0.123 billion yuan, +122.88% ~ +212.96% month-on-month, +32.68% ~ +86.30% month-on-month .
Market demand is recovering, and AIoT is growing. With the rapid development of generative AI, computing power will form a reasonable distribution between clouds, edges, and terminals according to application scenarios, promote miniaturization and specialization of models, and gradually develop various end-side or edge-side applications suitable for specific scenarios. The enterprise explores the implementation of large AI models in end-side application scenarios through various smart terminal hardware. The new intelligent hardware described above is usually configured with computing power with certain performance on the end side, and can be connected to large cloud AI models to meet the needs of intelligent interaction.
A leading supplier of AIoT SoC chips, continues to develop end-side AIoT chips. Focusing on edge-side and end-side AIoT chips, the company promotes research and development of various new products such as AI coprocessors, mid-to-high-end vision processors, next-generation economical vision processors, new general-purpose SoC processors, and audio amplifier chips to provide customers with different computing power chips from 0.5 Tops to 6 Tops. The RK3588 is the top flagship AIoT chip in China. It integrates the company's self-developed third-generation NPU processor, and the computing power is as high as 6 TOPS. The RK3576, a next-generation mid-range and high-end AIoT processor, was released in '24. It uses advanced process design, is equipped with the latest NPU with 6TOps computing power developed by the company, supports operators related to the Transformer model architecture, supports efficient operation of various AI algorithms, and can be widely used in automotive smart cockpits, tablets, etc.
Risk warning: Downstream recovery falls short of expectations; promotion of new products falls short of expectations.
