Complexities Of 5G Spectrum Allocation Weighs On MNOs
Complexities Of 5G Spectrum Allocation Weighs On MNOs
A cautious outlook for the telecommunications sector has been given, particularly in mobile segments, due to heightened competition and economic pressures from inflation, as cited by RHB Investment Bank's report today (July 16, Tuesday). With the recent issuance of the 5G Application Information Package (AIP) on July 1, the sector anticipates a structured rollout under the apparatus assignment (AA) model, perceived as less financially burdensome compared to previous spectrum assignment (SA) models.
由於競爭加劇和通貨膨脹的經濟壓力，RHb投資銀行今天(7月16日，星期二)發佈的報告中對電信行業的移動細分市場發佈了謹慎的展望。隨着7月1日推出5G應用信息包(AIP)，該行業預計在裝置分配(AA)模型下進行有序的推出，這被認爲比之前的頻譜分配(SA)模型更少財務負擔。
Analysts maintain a NEUTRAL stance on the telecommunications sector, acknowledging the complexities of the 5G spectrum rollout and its potential impacts on major players like Maxis and CelcomDigi (CDB). The shift towards Apparatus Assignment (AA) for 5G spectrum allocation is expected to mitigate immediate financial strain, with outcomes projected by the Third Quarter of 2024 (3Q24). The sector's resilience hinges on effective spectrum utilization and operational efficiencies amid ongoing regulatory adjustments.
Analysts favour fixed-line and integrated plays, citing strategic catalysts and stronger earnings potential. Axiata Group and OCK Group are identified as top picks amidst evolving industry dynamics.
分析師對電信行業持中立態度，認識到5G頻譜推出的複雜性及其對馬克西斯和賽路數碼(CDB)等主要參與者的潛在影響。5G頻譜分配向裝置分配(AA)轉變預計可緩解短期的財務壓力，最晚將於2024年第三季度(3Q24)有成果。該部門的韌性取決於有效的頻譜利用和運營效率，而這需要針對正在進行的監管調整進行調整。
分析師青睞固定線路和綜合娛樂型公司，引用戰略催化劑和更強的盈利潛力。Axiata Group和OCk Group被認爲是在行業動態變化中的最佳選擇。
RHB notes that most Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are positioning themselves for the second 5G network rollout through Entity B, as outlined in recent agreements with Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB). The regulatory framework mandates divestiture requirements for operators migrating to Entity B, which could influence market dynamics pending further shareholder negotiations.
Financially, the transition to the 5G spectrum under the previous SA model was estimated to potentially impact Maxis' and CDB's earnings by -5% to -8% for FY25F–26F, primarily driven by increased financing costs and spectrum-related amortization.
RHb指出，大多數移動網絡運營商(MNO)正在通過實體b爲第二階段的5G網絡推出做準備，這是根據他們最近與Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB)達成的協議之中所提及的。監管框架規定，進行實體b遷移的運營商必須滿足剝離要求，這可能會影響市場動態，但在股東進一步談判之後將會解決。
從財務上講，根據以前的SA模型，5G頻譜的轉化預計將對馬克西斯和CDB的FY25F-26F收益產生-5%至-8%的潛在影響，主要是由於融資成本和與頻譜相關的攤銷費用增加。
Looking ahead, RHB anticipates manageable capital expenditures (Capex) for telcos despite ongoing network expansion, facilitated by collaborative infrastructure sharing and innovative spectrum management strategies. The potential reintroduction of spectrum re-farming for 5G deployment and ongoing wholesale agreements with DNB are expected to moderate industry-wide Capex requirements in the medium term.
However, analysts caution against medium-term earnings risks stemming from additional operational expenses associated with the new 5G infrastructure.
展望未來，儘管正在進行的網絡擴展，由於合作基礎設施共享和創新的頻譜管理策略，RHb預計電信公司的可管理資本開支(Capex)也會保持穩定。中期內，5G部署的頻譜改良潛在重現，與DNb的持續批發協議預計將減輕全行業的Capex需求。
然而，分析師警告稱，新的5G基礎設施可能會帶來額外的中期收益風險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。