TENCENT HOLDINGS(700.HK):FLOURISHING HIGH QUALITY GROWTH EXECUTIONS
TENCENT HOLDINGS(700.HK):FLOURISHING HIGH QUALITY GROWTH EXECUTIONS
Tencent will report 2Q24 results on 14 August. Est. 9% YoY 2Q24 total revenue meets consensus, contributed by resilient 2% YoY social network, rejuvenated 8% YoY VAS online game, strong 24% YoY online ad and mixed 7% fintech & BS. GPM expands to 53.3% primarily due to revenue mix shift, above consensus. We deem Co.'s committed strategic executions across all business segments and progressive monetisations on various application scenarios are yielding sustainably high quality momentum. Maintain BUY and TP of HK$445.0.
騰訊將於8月14日公佈第二季度24財年業績。預估第二季度24財年總收入同比增長9％，達到共識，其中包括彈性2％的社交網絡，復甦的8％的VAS在線遊戲，強勁的24％年增長的在線廣告和混合的7％的金融科技和BS。GPm擴大至53.3％，主要是由於營收組合的轉變，高於共識。我們認爲，公司在所有業務領域的承諾戰略執行和各種應用場景的逐步貨幣化正在產生可持續的高品質動力。維持買入並保持HK$445.0的目標價。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Committed executions progress well. We deem Co.'s committed efforts to generate high quality revenue streams across all business segments are yielding fruits. For game, resilient evergreen game portfolios and launches of various new games across genres, terminals and geographies contribute grossing incremental. Effective channel management and ROI-prioritised stringent spending lift game profitability. For online ad, progressive monetisation of various integrated infrastructures and application scenarios empowered by AI with active user engagements generate sustainable high quality streams. For fintech & BS, user spending behaviour shift and video account eCommerce contribute high margin revenue. Thus, we maintain our 2024-2026E total revenue forecasts, with uplifted overseas game and online ad revenue estimations offsetting by fintech revenue cut. Raised GPM forecasts mainly contributed by online ad and fintech & BS offset our increased S&M assumptions, leading to unchanged 2024-2026E adj. OPM.
承諾的執行進展順利。我們認爲公司在所有業務領域致力於生成高品質收入流，正在取得積極結果。對於遊戲業務，彈性的經典遊戲組合和跨類別、終端和地域推出各種新遊戲，爲總收入增長做出貢獻。有效的渠道管理和以ROI爲優先的嚴格支出推高了遊戲的盈利能力。對於在線廣告業務，各種集成基礎設施和應用場景的逐步貨幣化，結合人工智能和活躍的用戶參與，產生了持續的高品質流。對於金融科技和BS，用戶支出行爲轉變和視頻帳戶電子商務爲高利潤收入做出貢獻。因此，我們保持2024-2026E總收入預測不變，通過增加海外遊戲和在線廣告收入估計抵消金融業務收入的減少。在線廣告和金融科技和BS的增長率主要貢獻了GPm預測的上漲，抵消了我們增加的S＆m假設，導致2024-2026E adj. OPm保持不變。
2Q24 preview: Rejuvenated online game and solid ad; Strong GPM. We model total revenue to grow 9% YoY to RMB162.6bn, in line with consensus. We estimate 5% YoY VAS revenue, supported by 2% YoY social network and 8% YoY online game. Strong mini-game, music and video segments continue to offset streaming cut from TME and Huya. We expect domestic games resume to 6% YoY on resilient or rejuvenated evergreen titles, contribution of DNFM considering deferral policy and cannablisation effects. Online ad continues solid momentum, with estimated revenue logging 24% YoY to RMB31bn, contributed by video account, mini program and various ad products. User spending behaviour pivoting away from offline consumption amid tepid macro continue weigh on fintech growth (est. 7% YoY/ -1% QoQ). Meanwhile, video account eCommerce grows robustly. GPM of 53.3%, above consensus contributed by high revenue streams mainly from online ad and fintech & BS services. Adj. EPADS of RMB5.00, in line with consensus.
第二季度24預覽：復甦的在線遊戲和堅實的廣告；強勁的GPm。我們預計總收入同比增長9％，達到人民幣1626億元，符合共識。我們預計5％的VAS收入，支持2％的社交網絡和8％的在線遊戲。強勁的小遊戲、音樂和視頻繼續抵消來自TME和虎牙的流媒體削減。我們預計，考慮到延遲政策和加速效應，國內遊戲恢復到6％的年同比增長，DNFm的貢獻。在線廣告業務保持良好勢頭，預計營收同比增長24％，達到310億元，其中包括視頻帳戶、小程序和各種廣告產品。由於在低迷的宏觀環境下，用戶支出行爲轉向線上消費，金融科技的增長率（預計同比增長7％/環比下降1％）將受到影響。同時，視頻帳戶電子商務得到了強勁的增長。GPm爲53.3％，高於共識，主要由於來自在線廣告和金融科技和BS服務的高收入流。每股攤薄收益預計爲人民幣5.00，符合共識。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: 1) regulations on games, fintech, online ad, streaming, personal data, taxation, etc.; 2) intensified competition for key segments; 3) weaker- than-expected macro; 4) destructive investments; 5) accelerated share divestment from main shareholder.
下行風險：1）對遊戲、金融科技、在線廣告、流媒體、個人數據、稅收等進行的監管；2）關鍵領域的競爭加劇；3）宏觀經濟狀況低於預期；4）破壞性投資；5）主要股東的加速減持。
Valuation
估值
Maintain BUY and our SOTP TP of HK$445.0 based on our updated estimations with corresponding unchanged 2024E multiples assigned to each segments (15.0x PER for online game, 16.0x PER for online ad, 15.0x PER for fintech & BS, 5x PSR for cloud) and latest subsidiaries and investments' valuation.
基於更新的估值，維持買入和我們的SOTP HK$445.0目標價，對各模塊分別分配相應的2024E倍數（在線遊戲爲15.0x PER，在線廣告爲16.0x PER，金融科技和BS爲15.0x PER，云爲5x PSR），並根據最新的子公司和投資估值進行調整。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。