Could June Producer Inflation Data Dampen Market Enthusiasm For Rate-Cut Winners? 5 ETFs To Watch
Could June Producer Inflation Data Dampen Market Enthusiasm For Rate-Cut Winners? 5 ETFs To Watch
The larger-than-expected drop in the June Consumer Price Index inflation rate has fueled market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
六月消費者物價指數通脹率大幅低於預期，引發市場對聯儲局降息的預期。
Investors no longer seem to have doubts and are assigning a 91% implied probability that rate cuts will begin as early as September 2024.
投資者不再懷疑，已經給未來降息的概率90%以上的概率，認爲最早將在2024年9月開始降息。
The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be crucial in determining whether producer price trends can continue to support rate-cut expectations or temper the optimism.
即將發佈的生產者物價指數(PPI)通脹報告，將決定未來生產價格趨勢是否支持降息預期或打消市場的樂觀情緒，此數據發佈時間爲週五上午8:30美國東部時間。
June PPI Preview: What Economists Expect
6月PPI預覽: 經濟學家期望值
- Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.1% on the month versus an unexpected 0.2% decline in May, according to economist consensus estimates, as tracked by TradingEconomics.
- On an annual basis, the PPI inflation is expected to accelerate from 2.2% to 2.3%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PPI is expected to advance by 0.2% month-over-month, accelerating from the previous flat reading.
- Annually, core producer prices are set to rise by 2.5%, up from 2.3% in May. That would mark the highest annual core producer inflation rate since August 2023.
- 根據TradingEconomics跟蹤的經濟學家共識預測，6月份生產者價格預計按月上漲0.1%，而5月份預期爲下降0.2%，年化的PPI通脹預期從2.2%上升到2.3%。
- 從年份上看，PPI通脹預計從2.2%加速到2.3%。
- 除食品和能源外，核心PPI預計按月增長0.2%，超過之前的平盤水平。
- 從年化角度來看，核心生產者價格預計將上漲2.5%，高於5月份的2.3％，這將標誌着自2023年8月以來最高的核心生產者通貨膨脹率。
5 ETFs To Watch Friday
觀察5種ETF週五的表現
On Thursday, traders favored markets poised to gain from future rate cuts, investing in sectors that could benefit from reduced borrowing costs, while penalizing assets that had already heavily discounted expectations of monetary policy shifts.
在週四，交易員青睞預期未來降息的市場，投資於可能從降低借款成本中獲益的部門，同時懲罰已經充分折扣的貨幣政策轉變預期的資產。
The producer inflation data will be pivotal in evaluating if this market momentum will persist.
生產者通貨膨脹數據將是評估市場勢頭持續性的關鍵。
Among Thursday's top-performing exchange-traded funds, we can definitely mention:
在週四表現最佳的ETF中，我們可以提到:
- SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) rallying 6.1%
- Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) rising 4.4%
- SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) up 4.2%
- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) up 3.6%
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) up 2.9%
- SPDR 房屋建築商ETF（NYSE：XHB）上漲6.1％
- 太陽能ETF-Invesco（NYSE：TAN）上漲4.4％
- SPDR S&P區域銀行ETF（NYSE：KRE）上漲4.2％
- iShares羅素2000指數ETF（NYSE：IWM）上漲3.6％
- VanEck 黃金礦業ETF（NYSE：GDX）上漲2.9%
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
圖像由Midjourney通過人工智能創建。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。