BILIBILI INC(9626.HK):ENHANCED MONETISATIONS WITH STREAMLINED OPERATIONS;UPGRADE TO BUY
BILIBILI INC(9626.HK):ENHANCED MONETISATIONS WITH STREAMLINED OPERATIONS;UPGRADE TO BUY
We expect BILI to report 2Q24 results in mid Aug. We model 17% YoY 2Q24 total revenue contributed by 12% YoY game, 31% YoY ad and 15% YoY VAS. GPM expansion and loss shrinkage sustain despite increased S&M on new game promotions. We expect dazzling new SLG game will contribute considerable 2H24 game incremental with higher GPM. Along with sustainable online ad growth momentum facilitated by multiple internal drivers, committed VAS executions and explorations, as well as streamlined operations across core segments, we see Co. will gain share within energetic domestic game and online ad in 2H24 with enhanced monetisation capabilities and efficiencies on vibrant community. Upgrade to BUY with new TP of US$20.0/ HK$156.0.
我們預計BILI將於8月中旬公佈第二季度業績。我們預測第二季度總營收中，12% YoY的遊戲貢獻佔17%，31% YoY的廣告和15% YoY的VAS貢獻佔比更大。GPm擴張和減損持續，雖然S&m增加了新遊戲促銷，我們預計新推出的驚豔SLG遊戲將對2H24遊戲收入產生可觀的增量，GPm更高。隨着多個內部推動因素帶來的持續的在線廣告增長勢頭，以及承諾的VAS執行和探索，以及核心業務領域的簡化運營，我們看到公司將在2H24內在充滿活力的國內遊戲和在線廣告領域佔據份額，獲得增強的貨幣化能力和效率，以及充滿活力的社區。升級爲買入，並將目標價上調至20.0美元/ 156.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Game: New SLG 'On fire'; Streamlined operations. We expect Co.'s game business will resume energetic in 2H24 (est. 2H24 mobile game revenue up 114% YoY on low base) mainly contributed by outperformed exclusively licensed SLG new game SanGuo. According to Qimai, it stably ranks Top 7 in iOS grossing game list by 10 July since launch on 13 June, way above our previous expectation assumed i) intensified competition in 2H24 domestic game market; and ii) solidified leaders within niche SLG game genre characterised with high ARPUs and low DAUs. We further lift our estimates and currently model its first month grossing to reach over RMB900mn and over RMB2.2bn grossing contribution in 2024. Simplified tedious game mode, light monetisation, synergies with in-app vibrant community filled with various verticals and successful promotions are key elements, in our view. We are quite optimistic for their N-T user retention and grossing sustainability given their upcoming S2 season schedule, content update and UGC ecosystems. We see L-T operations of this game would be a tipping point for Co. as this will be a i) reflection of game operation capabilities apart from core ACG games; and ii) sustainable revenue and profit generator. We expect Co. to announce more exclusively licensed pipelines across game genres in the future. Apart from SanGuo, another exclusively licensed ARPG game 'Heaven Burns Red' (织焰天穹) developed by Wright Flyer Studio is set to be officially released on 17 July in domestic market. Its official registration users exceeded 1m by 1 July. However, we currently do not model material revenue incremental for this game.
遊戲：新推出的SLG“火熱”的局面；簡化操作。我們預計公司的遊戲業務將在2H24恢復活力（預計2H24手機遊戲收入因超常績效增長114% YoY，而因低基數增長）。根據Qimai的數據，自6月13日推出以來，它穩定地排在iOS遊戲榜前7名，遠高於我們先前預計的情況，這包括i）2H24國內遊戲市場的激烈競爭；和ii）以高平均每用戶營收和低日活躍用戶數爲特點的細分SLG遊戲類型中的領軍者。我們進一步提高了我們的估計值，並目前將其第一個月的總收入預測爲超過9億元人民幣，並預期其在2024年對總收入的貢獻將超過22億元人民幣。依據我們的觀察，這款遊戲簡化了繁瑣的遊戲模式，提高了貨幣化水平，與充滿多元化垂直領域的應用內社區產生協同效應，併成功地推銷。我們對其N-t用戶保留和毛收入的可持續性非常樂觀，鑑於其即將到來的S2季節安排，內容更新和UGC生態系統。我們認爲該遊戲的L-t運營將是公司的一個轉折點，因爲其中i）反映了遊戲運營能力，除了核心ACG遊戲之外;和ii）可持續的營收和利潤生成器。我們期望公司在未來宣佈更多的獨家授權管道涵蓋不同遊戲類型。除了許多國遊，另一個由Wright Flyer Studio開發的獨家授權ARPG遊戲‘織焰天穹’定於7月17日在國內市場正式發佈。截至7月1日，其官方註冊用戶已超過100萬。然而，我們目前不預計爲此遊戲帶來實質性的收入增量。
For jointly operated game, we expect launch of MiHoYo game ZZZ (绝区零) further enrich game PUGV content while we do not expect meaningful revenue contribution. For in-house game strategy, Co. just announced to suspend operations for their in-house title 'Thrud' (斯露德) on 9 Oct, 2024 (launched on 17 Aug, 2023). We see this is a reflection to demonstrate Co.'s ROI-oriented game strategy to allocate resources diligently and dynamically. Similarly, we do not expect their in-house game to contribution meaningful game revenue in the future (low single-digit game revenue contribution).
對於聯合運營的遊戲，我們預計米哈遊遊戲‘絕區零’的推出將進一步豐富遊戲PUGV內容，但我們不認爲其會對收入做出重大貢獻。對於內部遊戲的策略，公司剛剛宣佈於2024年10月9日停止其內部遊戲《斯露德》的運營（於2023年8月17日推出）。我們認爲這反映了公司面向投資回報的遊戲策略，以使其資源得到有效的管理和分配。同樣，我們不預計他們的自制遊戲將在未來帶來實質性的遊戲收入（遊戲收入貢獻爲較低的單個數字）。
Online advertising: Multi-catalysts to drive sustainable growth. We expect sustainable and robust ad growth momentum in coming years (est. 24% 2023-2026E CAGR to RMB12bn in 2026E) on both increased ad inventory, ROI and eCPM contributed by i) new ad products; ii) enhanced monetisations on various consumption scenarios (search, moments, live and short video eC); iii) streamlined operations (dynamic ad load); iv) optimised algorithm on AI empowerment; and v) strengthened infrastructures. eCommerce platforms, game, 3C and FMCG will continue to be leading verticals to support growth.
在線廣告：多重催化劑推動可持續增長。我們預計未來幾年的廣告增長動力將是可持續和強勁的（預計2023-2026年CAGR可達24%，2026年達到120億元人民幣），受到以下因素的影響：i）新廣告產品；ii）在各種消費場景（搜索，瞬間，直播和短視頻eC）上增強貨幣化；iii）精簡運營（動態廣告負載）；iv）AI授權優化算法；v）加強基建。電商平台，遊戲，3C和FMCG將繼續是支持增長的主導垂直領域。
VAS: Committed executions. We deem their VAS strategy will be committed, i.e., integrating streaming with their core PUGV ecosystem and innovating various VAS monetisation models (premium membership, paid class, commission, etc.) to enhance their commercialistion capabilities. We model 13% 2023-2026E CAGR to reach over RMB14bn in 2026E for VAS revenue.
VAS：致力執行。我們認爲他們的VAS策略將是持續致力的，即將流媒體納入其核心PUGV生態系統，並創新各種VAS貨幣化模式（高級會員，付費課程，佣金等），以增強其商業化能力。我們預測2023-2026E年的VAS營收將以13%的CAGR增長至超過140億元人民幣。
Forecasts change: 3Q24 breakeven holds; FY24 breakeven subject to SLG grossing and S&M. We raise our 2024/25/26E total revenue estimations by 7%/5%/4% respectively by mainly uplifting our mobile game revenue forecasts (raised by 45%/33%/28% in 2024/25/26E) contributed by new SLG game. Accordingly, we lift our 2024/25/26E GPM forecasts by 120bps/ 123bps/ 82bps to reflect revenue mix change (est. 55-60% GPM for exclusively licensed SLG game). While our bottom line estimations are less impacted due to our increased S&M assumptions. We maintain our 3Q24 adj. Op breakeven assumption and currently estimate -1%/ 5%/ 8% adj. OPM in 2024/25/26E.
預測變化：3Q24保持盈虧平衡；全年收支平衡取決於SLG毛收入和S&m。我們將2024/25/26E年總收入預期上調7%/5%/4%，主要是大幅提高我們的手機遊戲收入預測（2024/25/26E年分別上調45%/33%/28%），這是由新的SLG遊戲帶來的。因此，我們將2024/25/26E年的GPm預測上調120bps/123bps/82bps，以反映營收結構的變化（預計獨家授權SLG遊戲將佔55-60%的GPm）。雖然底線的估計受到較小影響，但由於我們的S&m假設增加，我們的底線仍然穩定。我們保持我們的3Q24調整後的營運保持平衡性，目前預估2024/25/26E年的調整後OPm爲-1%/5%/8%。
2Q24 preview: Solid ad; continued loss shrinkage despite increased S&M on new game promotions. We model total revenue to grow at accelerated 17% YoY to RMB6.2bn, 2% above consensus. Mobile game revenue resumed back to +12% YoY on low base without material contribution from outperformed new SLG game. Online ad remain solid at 31% YoY to RMB2.0bn. VAS revenue deliver 15% YoY to RMB2.7bn mainly supported by strong streaming. We expect users remain healthy with DAUs growing at 7% YoY to 103mn. GPM continue expand QoQ to 29.3%, in line with consensus. Despite increased RMB1.2bn S&M estimation mainly on new game promotions, Op loss continue narrow QoQ with forecasted adj. operating loss margin shrinking from -18% in 2Q23 and -9% in 1Q24 to -8% in 2Q24. Adj. net loss margin of -6.3%, bigger than consensus -5.4%.
2Q24預覽：強勁廣告；儘管爲新遊戲做宣傳增加了S&m，虧損持續縮小。我們預計總收入將以17%的YoY加速增長至62億元人民幣，比共識高2%。手機遊戲收入回升至+12% YoY，但無實質性貢獻於主要由表現卓越的新SLG遊戲SanGuo。在線廣告繼續保持31% YoY增長，達到20億元人民幣，VAS收入達到15% YoY增長，達到27億元人民幣，主要得到強勁的流媒體支持，我們預計DAUs保持良好，2021年7月10日增長7% YoY，達到103萬。GPm QoQ增長至29.3%，與共識一致。儘管預計S&m增加了12億元人民幣，主要用於推廣新遊戲，但Op虧損持續QoQ收窄，預計調整後營運虧損邊際將從2Q23年的-18%和1Q24年的-9%降至2Q24年的-8%。調整後的淨虧損率爲-6.3%，大於共識的-5.4%。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside: (i) slower-than-expected macro recovery; ii) ineffective monetisation;
下行風險：（i）宏觀復甦速度低於預期； ii）貨幣化無效； （iii）內容創建者和用戶參與度； （iv）內容供應和質量； 和v）有關遊戲，流媒體，廣告，數據收集，稅收等的監管。
(iii) content creator and user engagement; (iv) content supply and quality; and (v) regulations on games, streaming, advertising, data collection, taxation, etc.
（iii）內容創建者和用戶參與度; （iv）內容供應和質量; 和（v）有關遊戲，流媒體，廣告，數據收集，稅收等的監管。
Valuation
估值
Upgrade to BUY and raise our TP to US$20.0/ HK$156.0 on 2.1x blended 2024 PSR from 4 key business segments (game, online ad, streaming and VAS) on our updated 2024E segment revenue estimations and corresponding selected domestic peers' valuation . This implies 36x/ 22x 2025/26E adj. PER based on our estimations. We currently maintain our PS valuation approach as we need to dynamically assess game grossing sustainability, GPM for key segments and S&M expenses, which are 3 determinants for their breakeven pace and future profitability forecasts.
升級爲買入，將目標價上調至20.0美元/ 156.0港元，以我們更新的2024年業務細分收入預測和相應的選定國內同行的估值的2.1倍2024 PSR計算得出。這意味着我們的估計值基於我們的2025/26E adj. PER預估，分別爲36倍/ 22倍。我們目前保持PS估值方法，因爲我們需要動態評估遊戲毛收入的可持續性，關鍵業務領域的GPm和S&m費用，這些是其盈利能力和未來盈利預測的三個決定因素。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。