'The Other 493' Set To Grow More Than 'Magnificent 7' This Earnings Season: Bank Of America
'The Other 493' Set To Grow More Than 'Magnificent 7' This Earnings Season: Bank Of America
The second quarter is projected to be the first in which the "Other 493" companies — those outside the "Magnificent 7" tech giants — will exhibit earnings growth after five quarters of stagnation or decline.
預計第二季度將是“其他493家”公司——即“七巨頭”之外的公司在經歷五個季度的停滯或下降後首次展現盈利增長。
This development could broaden market gains as tech sector growth slows, according to Bank of America.
據美國銀行稱，隨着科技板塊增長放緩，這一趨勢可能會擴大市場收益。
Bank of America's analysts, Ohsung Kwon, CFA and Savita Subramanian, presented a more conservative outlook on Q2 earnings for U.S. companies compared to consensus estimates.
美國銀行的分析師Ohsung Kwon，CFA和Savita Subramanian對比一致預期，提出了較爲保守的美國公司第二季度收益前景。
While the consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) to rise by 9% year-over-year in Q2, the analysts anticipate a 2% beat which aligns with historical averages but is the smallest since Q4 2022.
儘管共識預計第二季度每股收益將同比增長9％，但分析師預計將超出2％，這符合歷史平均水平，但是自2022年第四季度以來增幅最小。
Behind the weaker-than-expected forecasts, analysts cited the weak macroeconomic data last quarter.
分析師認爲，業績預測低於預期的原因在於上一季度的宏觀經濟數據疲軟。
"Economic Surprise Index is at the lowest level since June 2015. The historical relationship points to a 3% EPS miss," Bank of America wrote.
美國銀行寫道：“經濟驚喜指數處於2015年6月以來的最低水平。歷史關係指向3％的EPS錯過。”
'Magnificent 7 vs. The Other 493'
“七巨頭與其他493家公司”
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE:RSP) has underperformed the cap-weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) by approximately 13 percentage points year-to-date. This gap widens significantly when comparing the broader market with the Magnificent 7, as tracked by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSE:MAGS), as illustrated in the chart below from Benzinga Pro.
Invesco S&P 500平權ETF（紐交所：RSP）在今年以來的表現比市值加權的SPDR S&P 500 ETF信託（紐交所：SPY）低約13個百分點。與Trackhill Magnificent Seven ETF（紐交所：MAGS）跨市場對比相比，這種差距顯著擴大，如下圖所示。
This trend could potentially be halted in the upcoming weeks. As the tech sector's rapid growth begins to decelerate, the broader market, represented by the "Other 493" companies, is poised for earnings growth, according to Bank of America.
隨着科技板塊的快速增長開始減速，美國銀行認爲，代表“其他493家”公司的整個市場將迎來盈利增長，潛在地擴大市場收益。
"2Q is expected to be the first EPS growth quarter for the Other 493 since 4Q22, whereas growth for the Magnificent 7 is expected to slow for the second straight quarter and again in 3Q," analyst wrote.
分析師寫道：“與七巨頭相比，第二季度預計將是“其他493家”自2022年第四季度以來的首次每股收益增長，而七巨頭的增長預計將在第二季度和第三季度連續放緩。”
The Magnificent 7's earnings recovery began earlier because they entered an earnings recession in the second half of 2022. This prompted tech companies to implement cost-cutting measures sooner, resulting in an earlier recovery, Bank of America explained.
美國銀行解釋說，七巨頭的收益復甦始於去年下半年，因爲他們進入了收益衰退期。這促使科技公司更早地實施削減成本措施，從而實現更早的復甦。
Year-to-date, tech layoffs have significantly decreased, while layoffs outside the tech sector have increased, indicating more cost-cutting opportunities in non-tech industries.
年初至今，科技行業的裁員顯著減少，而科技行業之外的裁員增加，表明非科技行業有更多削減成本的機會。
These efforts are expected to enhance margins for the "Other 493" in 2024-25.
這些努力預計將提高“其他493家”公司在2024年至2025年的利潤率。
'Virtuous Cycle' From AI Investments
從人工智能投資中出現了“良性循環”
A virtuous cycle appears to be forming from AI investments. Major tech companies — Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) — confirmed last quarter that 2024 is set to be the first year of a multi-year AI investment cycle. The consensus capex forecast for these companies increased by $18 billion during Q1 earnings season to approximately $200 billion, a 34% year-over-year rise.
AI投資似乎正在形成一種良性循環。主要的科技公司——微軟公司（納斯達克：MSFT），亞馬遜公司（納斯達克：AMZN），Alphabet Inc（納斯達克：GOOGL）和Meta平台公司（納斯達克：META）——在上季度確認，2024年將是一個多年的人工智能投資週期的開始。這些公司的共識資本支出預測在第一季季度收益期間增加了18億美元，約佔2000億美元，同比增長34％。
Historically, companies in reinvestment cycles underperform, but AI investments could create a virtuous cycle.
歷史上，處於再投資週期中的公司表現不佳，但人工智能投資可能會創造良性循環。
Semiconductor "are the most obvious beneficiaries," Bank of America highlighted. Yet, the rising power consumption from AI and the construction of data centers are anticipated to boost demand for electrification, construction, utilities, and commodities, ultimately creating more jobs.
美國銀行指出，半導體是最明顯的受益者。然而，人工智能的不斷增長的功耗以及數據中心的建設預計將促使電氣化，建築，公用事業和商品領域的需求增加，最終創造更多就業機會。
Now Read:
現在就閱讀吧:
- Trump's Deregulation Agenda: Oil & Gas, Defense, And Finance Stocks May Benefit From Loose Rules, Goldman Sachs Says
- 高盛表示，特朗普的放松管制政策可能使石油和燃料幣、國防航空和金融股受益。
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。