June Inflation Report In Focus: Could It Seal The Deal For September Rate Cut?
June Inflation Report In Focus: Could It Seal The Deal For September Rate Cut?
Following the latest weaker-than-expected inflation reports, investors are eagerly awaiting June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Thursday to strengthen their expectations of interest rate cuts.
在最新公佈的低於預期的通脹報告之後，投資者正在熱切期待本週四公佈的六月消費者物價指數報告，以加強他們降息的預期。
While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday it won't be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate until policymakers obtain "greater confidence" inflation is heading unequivocally toward the 2% target, market expectations currently place a very high conviction on a September rate cut.
聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾週二重申，在決策者獲得"更大信心"通脹明確朝着2%的目標前進之前，削減聯邦基金利率不合適，而市場預期目前非常看好9月份的利率削減。
Fed futures currently indicate a 71% chance of a rate cut at the Sept. 18 Fed meeting and factor in 50 basis points — equivalent to two cuts — of rate reductions by year-end.
聯邦基金期貨目前表明，9月18日聯邦公開市場委員會會議上有71%的概率降息，並計入50個點子——相當於兩次降息——到年底。
June Inflation Report: Economist Expectations, Potential Market Reactions
六月通脹報告：經濟學家預期，潛在的市場反應。
- The consensus among Wall Street economists, as tracked by Econoday, predicts headline inflation to decrease from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3.1% in June 2024, year-over-year. Forecasts range between 3.1% and 3.3%.
- Consequently, any lower-than-expected inflation figure would be highly welcomed by market participants, with stocks and bonds — as broadly tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) — likely gaining ground. In contrast, a figure of 3.3% or higher would be viewed as a disappointment, likely strengthening the U.S. dollar and sending Treasury yields higher.
- On a monthly basis, inflation is seen up 0.1% compared to May 2024, inching up slightly from the previous flat reading.
- Core inflation, which excludes energy and food items, is expected at 3.5% year-over-year, marking a marginal uptick from May's 3.4% print.
- On a monthly basis, core inflation is expected to rise by 0.2%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month.
- 華爾街經濟學家共識，按Econoday跟蹤，預計2024年5月的總體通脹率將從3.3%下降到2024年6月的3.1%。預測範圍在3.1%至3.3%之間。
- 因此，任何低於預期的通脹數據都將受到市場參與者的高度歡迎，而股票和債券——如廣泛跟蹤的SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust（NYSE:SPY）和iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（納斯達克：TLT）——可能會獲得升值。相比之下，3.3%或更高的數字將被視爲失望，可能會加強美元並推高國債收益率。
- 按月計算，與2024年5月相比，通脹率看漲0.1%，略有上漲。
- 核心通脹率，不包括能源和食品品項，預計同比增長3.5%，略微高於5月的3.4%。
- 按月計算，核心通脹預計上漲0.2%，保持與上個月相同的增長率。
Goldman Sachs' Take
高盛的看法。
Goldman Sachs analysts Spencer Hill and Ronnie Walker highlight three key component-level trends expected in this month's report.
高盛分析師斯賓塞·希爾和羅尼·沃克強調了本月報告中預期出現的三個關鍵部分趨勢。
First, they anticipate used car prices to decline by 1.6%, reflecting continued alignment with auction prices. Second, car insurance prices are expected to rise, though not as rapidly as earlier in the year, with a forecasted 0.5% increase compared to the 1.3% average so far in 2024.
首先，他們預計二手車價格將下降1.6%，反映出持續對齊拍賣價格。其次，預計汽車保險價格將上漲，儘管不像今年早些時候那樣迅速上漲，預計將上漲0.5%，而今年迄今平均上漲1.3%。
Third, shelter inflation is expected to slow slightly, with rent predicted to increase by 0.36% and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) by 0.39%, as the gap between rents for new and continuing leases narrows.
第三，預計住房通脹率將略有放緩，租金預計將上漲0.36%，所有者等價租金將上漲0.39%，因新租約和舊租約租金之間的差距縮小。
"Going forward, we expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.2-0.3% range for the next few months before settling around 0.2% by end-2024," they stated.
"未來，我們預計月度核心CPI通脹率在未來幾個月內將保持在0.2-0.3%的區間內，然後在2024年底左右穩定在0.2%左右，"他們說。
Further disinflation is anticipated from rebalancing in the auto, housing rental and labor markets, though offsets are expected from ongoing catch-up inflation in healthcare and car insurance, as well as single-family rent growth outpacing multifamily rent growth.
汽車、住房租賃和勞動力市場再平衡將進一步抵消通貨膨脹，儘管醫保和汽車保險的持續趕超通脹以及單戶租金增長超過多戶租金增長也將帶來一定的抵消作用。
Read now:
立即閱讀：
- Bank of America May Anticipate Rate Cut Call If June Inflation Report Is 'Another Confidence Builder'
- 如果6月的通脹報告再一次增強信心，美國銀行可能會預期降息看漲。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。