FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):SHARE PRESSURE OVERDONE; RAISE ESTIMATES FOR STRONGER AIRPODS/AI SERVER UPSIDE
FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):SHARE PRESSURE OVERDONE; RAISE ESTIMATES FOR STRONGER AIRPODS/AI SERVER UPSIDE
Market concerns overdone; Raise estimates for multiple growth drivers in FY25/26E. We believe the recent stock price correction is mainly due to profit taking. We lift FY25/26E EPS by 12/10% for stronger AirPods ramp and general/AI server momentum. Trading at 14.3x/9.3x FY24/25 P/E, we think the valuation remains attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$4.24 based on a rolled-over 13x FY25E P/E (vs prior 11x P/E). Near- term catalysts include progress of AirPods shipment, auto M&A deals and AI server product updates.FIT Hon Teng announced a positive profit alert for 1H24 earnings, at US$28- 33mn (vs net loss of US$9mn in 1H23), mainly driven by stronger computing (PC)/ networking (server) segments and better operating efficiency. However, stock price is pressured by questions on 2024 earnings recovery pace and higher OPEX for AirPods and Voltaira biz. We are buyers on weakness given a back-loaded 2H24E with multiple product launches and operating leverage in 2H24E. We revise FY25/26E EPS estimates higher by 12%/10% to reflect better AI server demand and AirPods progress. We lift our TP to HK$4.24 based on a rolled-over 13x FY25E P/E (vs prior 11x P/E), for a multiple-product cycle and higher earnings visibility. Recent stock correction is overdone, in our view. Reiterate BUY.
鴻騰精密宣佈1H24盈利爲2,800-3,300萬美元（vs 1H23淨虧損900萬美元）的正面盈利預警，主要受較強的計算機/網絡服務器業務和更好的運營效率驅動。然而，由於2024年收益恢復速度和AirPods以及Voltaira業務的高額運營費用問題，股價承壓。我們會買入弱點，因爲2H24E具有多款產品發佈和2H24E的運營槓桿作用。我們上調FY25/26E每股收益預期12%/10%，以反映更好的人工智能服務器需求和AirPods進展。我們將目標價上調至4.24港元，基於滾動的13倍FY25E市盈率（相對於之前的11倍市盈率），多重產品週期和更高的盈利可預見性。在我們看來，最近的股價回調過度了。重申買入。
Positive alert for 1H24 on stronger PC/server demand, but higher OPEX in focus. FIT pre-announced 1H24 earnings of US$28-33mn, implying US$18-23mn in 2Q24 (vs US$10mn in 1Q24), slightly below expectations mainly due to higher 2Q24 OPEX for AirPods initial ramp-up and Voltaira auto business, in our view. However, we believe 2024 earnings is back-loaded with AirPods product launches and GB200 server orders in 2H24E. For OPM, mgmt. maintained FY24E core OPM of 5.5% (vs 4.9% in 2023).
強PC/服務器需求推動1H24的正面預警，但高額運營費用備受關注。鴻騰精密預先宣佈1H24盈利爲2,800-3,300萬美元，暗示2Q24會有1,800-2,300萬美元的盈利（vs 1Q24的1,000萬美元），略低於預期，主要是因爲我們認爲2Q24的AirPods初始上揚和Voltaira汽車業務的高額運營費用。然而，我們相信2024年的收益會在AirPods產品發佈和2H24E的GB200服務器訂單中隨之上升。對於OPm，管理層保持FY24E核心OPm爲5.5%（vs 2023年的4.9%）。
AirPods/AI server momentum continuing into 2H24E; Expect upside from iPhone and general servers ahead. We spoke to mgmt. post announcement and FIT reiterated a positive outlook and FY24E guidance driven by PC recovery, networking demand, Voltaira auto business and AirPods shipment. For networking biz, apart from GB200's compute tray connectors (7-9% of FY24E revenue), mgmt. expected potential order wins of copper cable cartridge in FY25E. For AirPods/iPhone, mgmt. is increasingly positive on the new product cycle backed by Apple Intelligence in 2H24E. Overall, we expect FIT's net profit to rebound 48%/54% YoY in FY24/25E.
AirPods/人工智能服務器動力持續到2H24E；預計iPhone和普通服務器將出現上漲。我們在公告後與管理層進行了交談，鴻騰精密重申了積極的展望和FY24E指引，主要由PC復甦、網絡需求、Voltaira汽車業務和AirPods出貨推動。對於網絡業務，除了GB200的計算托盤連接器（FY24E收入的7-9%）外，管理層還預計FY25E可能會獲得銅電纜盒的訂單。對於AirPods/iPhone，管理層對2H24E的蘋果智慧（Apple Intelligence）以及新型產品週期變得越來越樂觀。總體而言，我們預計FIT的淨利潤將在FY24/25E中呈48%/54% YoY反彈。
Market concerns overdone; Raise estimates for multiple growth drivers in FY25/26E. We believe the recent stock price correction is mainly due to profit taking. We lift FY25/26E EPS by 12/10% for stronger AirPods ramp and general/AI server momentum. Trading at 14.3x/9.3x FY24/25 P/E, we think the valuation remains attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$4.24 based on a rolled-over 13x FY25E P/E (vs prior 11x P/E). Near- term catalysts include progress of AirPods shipment, auto M&A deals and AI server product updates.
市場的擔憂過度了，因多個成長驅動因素上調了FY25/26E的估算。我們認爲最近的股價調整主要是由於賺錢了。我們上調FY25/26E每股收益12/10%，以反映AirPods上揚和一般/人工智能服務器動力更強。以14.3x/9.3x FY24/25市盈率交易，我們認爲估值仍具吸引力。維持買入，新目標價爲4.24港元，基於滾動的13倍FY25E市盈率（相對於之前的11倍市盈率）。近期催化劑包括AirPods出貨進展、汽車M&A交易和人工智能服務器產品的更新。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
