Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
The following is an update to the second quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on August 1, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
以下是2024年第二季度展望的更新，概述了我們對第二季度的當前預期。所提供的展望可能與實際2024年第二季度業績有所不同，而且應根據將於2024年8月1日發佈的這些結果進行最終確定。除非另有說明，否則所有展望聲明均不包括確定的項目。
See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
有關歷史數據，請參見附錄。
Integrated Gas
集成燃料幣
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 940 - 980 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.8 - 7.2 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 - 1.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q2'23, but lower compared to Q1'24 due to seasonality. | ||
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的EBITDA： | ||
| 生產量（千桶當量/日） | 940 - 980 | |
| 液化天然氣成交量（百萬噸） | 6.8 - 7.2 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| 稅收成本 | 0.8 - 1.1 | |
| 其他考慮: | ||
| 交易和優化業務預計將與Q2'23保持一致，但與Q1'24相比由於季節性因素而有所下降。 | ||
Upstream
“我們相信我們在Upstream的申請將有助於Foremost潛在的最大化流動性，並提高潛在股東的價格發現，使其接觸到新的國際股東群體，”Foremost鋰礦總裁兼首席執行官Jason Barnard說，“Upstream是一個擁有完全監管的全球交易應用，受衆是那些不受地域或貨幣限制的投資者，通常是在U.S.或加拿大上市的證券的國際交易過程比較困難的地區。Upstream將是一個出色的工具，可以接觸到一個尚未開發的潛在新股東的國際市場。”
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,720 - 1,820 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 1.8 - 2.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2'24 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2'24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | ||
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的EBITDA： | ||
| 生產量（千桶當量/日） | 1720 - 1820 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| 稅收成本 | 1.8 - 2.6 | |
| 其他考慮: | ||
| 在Q2'24中，合營企業和聯營企業的利潤/（虧損）預計將達到約2億美元。Q2'24勘探井註銷預計將達到約2億美元。 | ||
Marketing
市場營銷
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,700 - 3,100 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的EBITDA： | ||
| 銷售量（千桶/日） | 2700 - 3100 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
| 稅收成本 | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| 其他考慮: | ||
| 市場營銷結果預計與Q1'24持平。 | ||
Chemicals & Products
化學品及產品
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Indicative refining margin | $8/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $155/tonne | Chemicals sub segment Adjusted Earnings are expected to be close to break-even in Q2'24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 91% - 95% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 78% - 82% | |
| Underlying opex | 1.9 - 2.3 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.7 - 0.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的EBITDA： | ||
| 指示煉油利潤 | $8/桶 | |
| 指示化學品利潤 | $155/噸 | 化學品子業務預計在Q2'24接近盈虧平衡的調整後盈利。 |
| 煉油廠利用率 | 91% - 95% | |
| 化學品利用率 | 78% - 82% | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 1.9 - 2.3 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 0.7 - 0.9 | |
| 稅收成本 | 0.1 - 0.5 | |
| 其他考慮: | ||
| 交易與優化業務預計與Q1'24年相當。 | ||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
可再生能源和能源解決方案
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的收益 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
Corporate
公司
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| 調整後的收益 | (0.7) - (0.5) |
Shell Group
殼牌集團
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | ||
| Tax paid | 3.1 - 3.9 | |
| Derivative movements | (2) - 2 | Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
| Working capital | (2) - 2 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
| Non-cash post tax impairments of $1.5 - $2 billion are expected, and mainly include the Singapore Chemicals & Products assets ($0.6 - $0.8 billion) as well as Rotterdam HEFA ($0.6 - $1.0 billion), which is reported in the Marketing segment. These items are reported as identified items. | ||
| 十億美元 | Q2'24前景 | 評論 |
| CFFO: | ||
| 已支付稅款 | 3.1-3.9 | |
| 衍生物運動 | （2）-2 | 衍生物運動和營運資本估計固有的不確定性範圍很大。 |
| 營運資本 | （2）-2 | |
| 其他殼牌集團考慮因素: | ||
| 預計會產生15億至20億的非現金稅後減值，主要包括新加坡化學品和產品資產（6億至8億美元）以及報告在營銷領域的鹿特丹HEFA（6億至10億美元）等其他項目。這些項目被報告爲確認的項目。 | ||
Guidance
指導
The 'Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
“季度數據手冊”包括指示的煉油利潤、化學品利潤和全年價格和利潤敏感性指南（鏈接）。
Consensus
共識
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 25, 2024.
按報告細分、Shell集團一級的經調整後盈利（Adjusted Earnings）和經調整後息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤（Adjusted EBITDA）的季度共識數據和Vara Research管理的Shell集團現金淨流入，預計將於2024年7月25日發佈。
Appendix
附錄
Indicative Margins
指示利潤率
For Integrated Gas Q1'24 realised prices have been restated. There is no impact of this revision on previously
reported segment financials and other key performance indicators.
對於綜合氣體，2024年第一季度的實現價格已經重新調整。這次修訂對以前報告的業務部門財務和其他關鍵業績指標沒有影響。
報告的業務部門財務和其他主要業績指標。
| Integrated Gas Realised Prices | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Restated |
| Liquids ($/bbl) | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| Gas ($/thousand scf) | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| 綜合氣體實現價格 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年Q1重申 |
| 液體（美元/桶） | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| 燃料幣/千立方英尺 | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| Chemicals & Products | Q1'24 | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $12/bbl | $8/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $150/tonne | $155/tonne |
| 化學品及產品 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 指示煉油利潤 | $12/桶 | $8/桶 |
| 指示化學品利潤 | $150/噸 | $155/噸 |
Volume Data
成交量數據
| Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 QPR Outlook | Q2'24 Updated Outlook | |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 992 | 920 - 980 | 940 - 980 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.6 | 6.8 - 7.4 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,872 | 1,630 - 1,830 | 1,720 - 1,820 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,763 | 2,700 - 3,200 | 2,700 - 3,100 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 91% | 87% - 95% | 91% - 95% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 73% | 72% - 80% | 78% - 82% |
| 2024年第一季度調整後 | 2024年第二季度QPR展望 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 | |
| 集成燃料幣 | |||
| 生產量（千桶當量/日） | 992 | 920 - 980 | 940 - 980 |
| 液化天然氣成交量（百萬噸） | 7.6 | 6.8 - 7.4 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| “我們相信我們在Upstream的申請將有助於Foremost潛在的最大化流動性，並提高潛在股東的價格發現，使其接觸到新的國際股東群體，”Foremost鋰礦總裁兼首席執行官Jason Barnard說，“Upstream是一個擁有完全監管的全球交易應用，受衆是那些不受地域或貨幣限制的投資者，通常是在U.S.或加拿大上市的證券的國際交易過程比較困難的地區。Upstream將是一個出色的工具，可以接觸到一個尚未開發的潛在新股東的國際市場。” | |||
| 生產量（千桶當量/日） | 1,872 | 1630 - 1830 | 1720 - 1820 |
| 市場營銷 | |||
| 銷售量（千桶/日） | 2,763 | 2700 - 3200 | 2700 - 3100 |
| 化學品及產品 | |||
| 煉油廠利用率 | 91% | 87% - 95% | 91% - 95% |
| 化學品利用率 | 73% | 72% - 80% | 78% - 82% |
Underlying Opex
基礎營業費用
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.0 | ||
| Research and development | 0.2 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| Less: Identified Items | (0.1) | ||
| Underlying Opex | 9.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| Upstream | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| Marketing | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Chemicals & Products | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 - 2.3 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 十億美元 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年第一季度調整後 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 生產和製造費用 | 5.8 | ||
| 銷售、分銷和管理費用 | 3.0 | ||
| 研發 | 0.2 | ||
| 營業費用 (Opex) | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| 扣除已確定的項目 | (0.1) | ||
| 基礎營業費用 | 9.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合天然氣 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| 上游 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| 營銷 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| 化學品和產品 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 - 2.3 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
折舊、篩選和攤銷
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.2 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| Upstream | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Marketing | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 - 0.7 |
| Chemicals & Products | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | — | 0.1 |
| 十億美元 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年第一季度調整後 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 折舊、篩選和攤銷 | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| 扣除已確定的項目 | 0.2 | ||
| 稅前折舊（根據調整後） | 5.7 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合天然氣 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 上游 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| 營銷 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 - 0.7 |
| 化學品和產品 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | — | 0.1 |
Tax Charge
稅收
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.5) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 4.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| Upstream | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 - 2.6 |
| Marketing | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| Chemicals & Products | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.5 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | — |
| 十億美元 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年第一季度調整後 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 稅收支出 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| 減：確定性項目和供應調整成本 | (0.5) | ||
| 稅收支出（調整後） | 4.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合天然氣 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 上游 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 - 2.6 |
| 營銷 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| 化學品和產品 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.5 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.1 | — |
Adjusted Earnings
調整後的收益
The "Adjusted Earnings" measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell's financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
“調整後收益”指標旨在通過消除油價變化對存貨賬面價值的影響和消除確定性項目的影響，促進對殼牌的財務表現進行期間性比較。在某些情況下，這些項目是由外部因素驅動的，在某些情況下，可能會單獨或共同阻礙對殼牌財務業績進行期間性比較的理解。該指標不包括應歸屬於非控制權益的收益。有關詳細信息，請參見2024年第一季度未經審計的業績報告（鏈接）
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.3) | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.6) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 7.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| Corporate | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 十億美元 | 2024年第一季度 | 2024年第一季度調整後 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 歸屬於殼牌股份有限公司股東的收入/(虧損) | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| 加：歸屬於殼牌股份有限公司股東的庫存成本調整 | (-0.3) | ||
| 減：歸屬於殼牌股份有限公司股東的特定項目 | (0.6) | ||
| 調整後的收益 | 7.7美元 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| 公司的 | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7) - (0.5) |
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。