Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in Kellanova (NYSE:K) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 17%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 25%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 12% in three years.
購買指數基金很容易匹配整體市場回報。積極投資者的目標是購買大幅跑贏市場的股票，但在此過程中，他們面臨着表現不佳的風險。在過去一年中，Kellanova公司(NYSE:K)股價下跌了17%，這很明顯低於市場回報率的大約25%。長期股東的損失相對較少，因爲股票在過去三年中下跌了12%。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
鑑於此，值得看看該公司的基本面是否一直是長期業績的驅動因素，或者是否存在一些不一致之處。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的話說，“船隻會在世界各地航行，但是持平地球學會會蓬勃發展。在市場上，價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差距……”評估公司周圍情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益（EPS）與股價進行比較。
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Kellanova share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 50%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在不幸的12個月中，Kellanova公司的股價下跌，但每股收益(EPS)卻提高了50%。過去的增長預期很可能是不合理的。
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
可以說股價似乎沒有反映EPS的增長。但我們可能會發現一些不同的指標更好地解釋股價的波動。
Vibrant companies don't usually cut their dividends, so the recent reduction might help explain why the Kellanova share price has been weak.
充滿活力的企業通常不會裁減股息，所以最近的減少可能有助於解釋爲什麼Kellanova公司的股價表現較弱。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下圖像顯示了公司的營業收入和盈利（隨時間變化）（單擊以查看準確的數字）。
Kellanova is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Kellanova in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
Kellanova公司是一家知名股票，有很多分析師進行了覆蓋，這表明一些對未來增長的可見性。您可以查看這個交互式未來利潤預估的圖表，了解分析師對Kellanova公司的預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢？
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Kellanova the TSR over the last 1 year was -8.1%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股價回報外，投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。TSR是一個回報計算，考慮到現金股息的價值(假設任何收到的股息都被再投資)以及任何折價股本增發和分拆的計算價值。可以說，TSR給出了一個更全面的股票回報圖景。我們注意到，對於Kellanova公司，過去1年的TSR爲-8.1%，比上述股價回報率要好。公司支付的股息因此提高了股東的回報。總股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Kellanova shareholders are down 8.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kellanova that you should be aware of.
Kellanova的股東今年已經虧損了8.1%(包括股息)，但市場本身上漲了25%。即使好股票的股價有時也會下跌，但我們希望在有實質性的業務指標改善之前不要過於關注。長期投資者不會太失落，因爲在過去的五年中，他們每年都可以獲得6%的回報。如果基本數據仍然顯示出長期可持續增長，那麼目前的拋售可能會是一個值得考慮的機會。我覺得審視長期的股價作爲企業績效的替代品非常有趣。但是爲了真正獲得見解，我們需要考慮其他信息。例如，我們已經發現了Kellanova公司的2個警示信號，您應該注意。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
當然，您可能在其他地方找到一家出色的企業進行投資。因此，請查看我們預計將實現盈利增長的公司的免費列表。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意，本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。