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江河集团(601886):装饰龙头强者恒强

Jianghe Group (601886): Hengqiang, the leading decoration leader

海通證券 ·  Jul 4

Strong curtain wall leaders are always strong and should be given a premium. Against the backdrop of pressure on the total volume of the industry, the company's performance is outstanding. It is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth this year. The total number of new orders in 23 years has steadily ranked first in the industry, and its leading position is prominent. From a revenue perspective, the company has maintained double-digit growth for 4 consecutive quarters; from a profit perspective, the company has maintained double-digit growth for 2 consecutive quarters; profit after deduction has maintained double-digit growth for 6 consecutive quarters. We believe that the company's leading position has been reflected.

The risk of impairment has been fully released, and cash flow is expected to continue to improve. Asset and credit impairment has begun to decline in '23, and net operating cash inflow exceeds net profit. The interior sector Gangyuan Decoration has bottomed out and rebounded, profits have resumed, and orders have resumed positive growth. Currently, the customer type is mainly the leading enterprise category.

Photovoltaic construction is trending, and the company has taken an absolute advantage. PV construction orders were 1.37 billion yuan in '23, and we expect continued high growth in 24 years. The company is the first domestic customized photovoltaic module company to provide “design+product production” for urban buildings.

Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 7.80, 8.74, and 979 million yuan respectively in 24-26, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 12.0%, and 12.0%, respectively.

The company's leading position is stable. The 24-26 performance combined increased by 13%. At the same time, in line with cash flow, the dividend ratio reached 30% +. Currently, the valuation is at the bottom and is in a broken state. EPS is expected to be 0.69 and 0.77 yuan respectively in 24-25, giving a price-earnings ratio of 14-16 times for 24 years, with a reasonable value range of 9.64-11.02 yuan, maintaining a “superior to market” rating.

Risk warning: repayment risk, business development risk, policy risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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