The trading volume of the U.S. stock market may be light on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day holiday.

As of press time, the three major indexes rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.12%, the Nasdaq up 0.08%, and the Dow Jones up 0.06%.

On Wednesday's economic data, a report released by ADP, a private job agency in the United States, showed that the private sector employment growth rate in June dropped slightly, indicating that the U.S. labor market may be slowing down.

The June ADP data showed that companies added jobs at a more moderate pace in June, wage growth slowed, consistent with the gradual cooling of labor demand.

The private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, lower than the adjusted May data of 157,000 and below the average analyst expectation of 160,000 surveyed by Dow Jones. The June ADP employment figure was the lowest since January.

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, said, "Job growth has been strong, but the sectoral foundation is not wide. June will be a pessimistic month if it weren't for the rebound in recruitment for leisure and hotel industries."

The growth rate of salary for stayers also slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, which is the smallest increase since August 2021. The salary of job-hoppers increased by 7.7%, which also showed a downward trend.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the more closely watched June non-farm employment report on Friday. ADP data is usually seen as a precursor to the report. The market currently expects the June non-farm employment data to show an increase of 200,000 jobs.

However, there is often a discrepancy between the ADP report and government non-farm employment data, sometimes even a large one. ADP employment data has always been lower than the statistics of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For example, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in early June that private employment increased by 229,000 in May, 72,000 higher than ADP data for the same month.

The U.S. Department of Commerce's data on Wednesday showed that due to the larger decline in exports than imports, the U.S. trade deficit in May expanded to the highest level since 2022. In May, the trade deficit for goods and services increased by 0.8% MoM to $75.1 billion, the highest since October 2022. The median prediction of economists surveyed by the media was a deficit of $76.5 billion.

In May, exports of goods and services fell by 0.7%, and imports fell by 0.3%. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.

The expansion of the trade deficit is expected to drag down GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter. Before the release of Wednesday's data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDPNow prediction showed that trade would drag down second-quarter economic growth by nearly one percentage point.

The number of continuous claims for unemployment benefits in the United States continued to rise for the ninth consecutive week, the longest continuous increase since 2018, indicating that more and more people are having difficulty finding new jobs.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that as of the week ending June 29, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 238,000, higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value 233,000.

As of the week ending June 22, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits increased to 1.86 million, the highest since November 2021. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 4,000 to 238,000 last week.

Investors are still assessing when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday at a central bank forum that while the Fed has made great progress in reducing inflation, it is not yet ready to cut rates.

Michael Metcalfe, Global Chief Macro Strategist at State Street Bank, said: "Powell's attitude has changed. Recent inflation data has been encouraging. It is believed that inflation is not as stubborn as expected and may receive some policy support, which is encouraging."

Nick Timiraos, known as the Fed megaphone, commented that Fed Chairman Powell's talk of inflation progress on Tuesday brought rate cuts back into view.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for June will be released one hour after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday.

Traders currently expect a 69% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, and expect two rate cuts this year. This is in stark contrast to the expected loosening policy of over 150 basis points at the beginning of the year, but has significantly improved compared to the scenario a few months ago when investors believed that there would be no rate cut this year, even though it was not their basic expectation. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Investors are also concerned about the prospects for the US presidential election.

As Wall Street adjusts to the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, traders in the $27 trillion US bond market are betting on a rise in long-term bond yields.

After the first US presidential election debate, traders have been buying shorter-dated US Treasuries and selling longer-dated ones. This trend of betting on steepening the US bond yield curve has been increasing since the first debate.

Data shows that the spread between two-year and ten-year US Treasury yields surged by about 13 basis points on last Friday and this Monday, the largest two-day move since October last year.

Focus stocks

Large tech stocks have mixed performances, with Tesla up nearly 4%, Broadcom up nearly 2%, and Super Micro Computer down more than 1%.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It rose nearly 4% again, with second-quarter delivery figures exceeding expectations and some investment banks expecting it to rise as high as $400. In addition, Tesla announced that its second-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, will make its debut at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference today.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It fell slightly as media reported that Nvidia's AI GPU H200 upstream chip has entered the mass production phase since late Q2, and it is expected to deliver a large number of products after Q3. Nvidia said that the shortage of H200 supply or even the shortage of supply and demand may continue until 2025.

$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US)$It surged more than 10%. According to foreign media reports, Skydance, an American production company, has reached a preliminary deal to acquire the controlling rights of Paramount Global B (Para.US).

$Apple (AAPL.US)$It rose slightly. According to reports, Apple's output value in India doubled in the 2024 fiscal year alone, reaching $14 billion, with exports exceeding $10 billion, contributing more than 60% to India's mobile phone exports. In addition, Apple will have an observer seat on the OpenAI Board of Directors.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It fell slightly. Recently, the upward momentum has attracted market attention. Amazon's stock price closed at $200 for the first time on Tuesday, with a market cap of $2.08 trillion. Its stock price has risen by more than 10.5% cumulatively in the past month.

$DouYu (DOYU.US)$It surged more than 34%. Its board of directors announced a special dividend of about $9.76 per share today.

Editor/Emily