Keurig Dr Pepper's estimated fair value is US$55.85 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Keurig Dr Pepper is estimated to be 41% undervalued based on current share price of US$32.78
Our fair value estimate is 51% higher than Keurig Dr Pepper's analyst price target of US$36.90
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$2.74b
US$3.05b
US$3.26b
US$3.25b
US$3.27b
US$3.30b
US$3.35b
US$3.41b
US$3.47b
US$3.55b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x6
Analyst x3
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 0.48%
Est @ 1.05%
Est @ 1.45%
Est @ 1.73%
Est @ 1.92%
Est @ 2.06%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2%
US$2.6k
US$2.7k
US$2.7k
US$2.6k
US$2.4k
US$2.3k
US$2.2k
US$2.1k
US$2.0k
US$1.9k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$24b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.2%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$95b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)10= US$52b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$76b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$32.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqGS:KDP Discounted Cash Flow July 3rd 2024
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Keurig Dr Pepper as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.829. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Keurig Dr Pepper
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Balance sheet summary for KDP.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Beverage market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Is KDP well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Keurig Dr Pepper, we've compiled three pertinent items you should further examine:
Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Keurig Dr Pepper you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.
Future Earnings: How does KDP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
關鍵見解
根據兩階段的股本自由現金流,Keurig Dr Pepper的估計公允價值爲55.85美元
根據目前32.78美元的股價,估計Keurig Dr Pepper的估值被低估了41%
我們的公允價值估計比Keurig Dr Pepper的分析師目標股價36.90美元高出51%
在本文中,我們將通過計算預期的未來現金流並將其折現爲今天的價值,來估算Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:KDP)的內在價值。這將使用折扣現金流 (DCF) 模型來完成。儘管它可能看起來很複雜,但實際上並沒有那麼多。
上面的計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,那就自己計算一下,試一試假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Keurig Dr Pepper視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了6.2%,這是基於0.829的槓桿貝塔值。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Keurig Dr Pepper 的 SWOT 分析
力量
過去一年的收益增長超過了該行業。
債務可以很好地由收益支付。
KDP 的資產負債表摘要。
弱點
與飲料市場前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
機會
預計未來三年的年收入將增長。
根據市盈率和估計的公允價值,物有所值。
威脅
運營現金流無法很好地覆蓋債務。
現金流不涵蓋股息。
預計年收益的增長速度將低於美國市場。
KDP 有足夠的能力應對威脅嗎?
展望未來:
儘管公司的估值很重要,但理想情況下,它不會是你仔細檢查公司的唯一分析內容。使用DCF模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果稍微調整終值增長率,則可能會極大地改變整體結果。我們能否弄清楚爲什麼公司的交易價格低於內在價值?對於 Keurig Dr Pepper,我們整理了三項相關內容,你應該進一步研究:
風險:舉個例子,我們發現了你應該注意的Keurig Dr Pepper的3個警告信號,其中一個對我們來說不太合適。