Incident: Exclusive agent for botulinum toxin type A Hutox was accepted domestically. Aimeike's injectable botulinum toxin type A was officially registered and accepted by the State Drug Administration on June 27. The indications are moderate to severe wrinkles between the eyebrows. This botulinum toxin is a product owned by the Korean pharmaceutical company Huons. In the Korean market, the brand name is Liztox. In 2021, Aimeike obtained exclusive distribution rights for Hutox botulinum toxin products in China through the acquisition of Huons shares.
The domestic botulism market is vast, and products under development are ready to go: ISAPS data shows that in 2022, the number of botulism treatments in the world ranked first among all non-surgical aesthetic programs, accounting for far higher than the second-ranked hyaluronic acid. According to the 100 advice strategy, the global market size of botulinum toxin is 7.7 billion US dollars in 2023; according to the Huajing Industry Research Institute, the domestic compliance market is about 9.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of about 18%. We believe that there is still a lot of room for domestic botulism under the logic of increasing share and compliance substitution. Currently, there are 5 compliant botulism products and various products under development in the domestic market. The increase in the supply of compliant products is expected to further squeeze the water goods market and expand the space for compliant products. Aimeike is expected to use Korea's leading original factory+leading domestic channel to achieve a breakthrough.
Following pipelines such as hyaluronic acid and regeneration, major products were added, and I am optimistic that the company will move towards a platform-based leader:
We believe that in terms of standards such as Aierjian and Gao Demei, medium- to long-term medical and aesthetic companies will develop in the direction of platformization and clustering through various methods such as self-development+BD. At a time when medical and aesthetic categories are becoming more and more perfect, upstream manufacturers need to increase their potential energy through complementary solutions. As a leading company with a relatively complete category layout, Aimeike is expected to benefit from industry trends. Up to now, it has deployed hyaluronic acid, recycled materials, implants, cosmetics, etc., including botulinum toxin, photoelectric, weight loss, and lipolytic injections., Bonida 2.0 has entered the registration process; 2) Medical sodium hyaluronate - hydroxypropyl methylcellulose gel, second-generation implantation line, lidocaine butacaine cream are in clinical trials, and liraglutide injections have completed phase I clinical trials; 3) simeglutide injections, deoxycholic acid injections, and hyaluronidase for injection are in the pre-clinical research stage, and it is expected that clinical trial applications will be submitted within the year.
Investment advice: As an upstream medical and aesthetic leader, it is expected to continue to grow in the context of rich research pipeline reserves, expansion and compliance in the medical and aesthetic market to promote increased concentration. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 38.3/49.9/6.32 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and achieve net profit of 24.5/31.6/3.97 billion yuan, corresponding PE 21/16/13 times, respectively. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: risk of changes in the external macroeconomic environment; risk of changes in medical and aesthetic policies; product approval falls short of expectations; market competition increases risk