Despite Shrinking by US$608m in the Past Week, Gap (NYSE:GPS) Shareholders Are Still up 166% Over 1 Year
Despite Shrinking by US$608m in the Past Week, Gap (NYSE:GPS) Shareholders Are Still up 166% Over 1 Year
The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS) shareholders have seen the share price descend 21% over the month. Despite this, the stock is a strong performer over the last year, no doubt about that. During that period, the share price soared a full 159%. So it is important to view the recent reduction in price through that lense. The real question is whether the business is trending in the right direction.
Gap公司（紐交所：GPS）的股東們在過去一個月裏看到股價下降了21％。儘管如此，該股在過去一年中表現強勁，毫無疑問。在這段期間裏，該股飆升了整整159％。因此，重要的是通過這個角度來看待最近的價格下跌。真正的問題在於業務是否朝着正確的方向發展。
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
既然長期表現不錯，但最近出現了6.6％的下跌，讓我們檢查一下基本面是否符合股價。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的話說，“船隻會在世界各地航行，但是持平地球學會會蓬勃發展。在市場上，價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差距……”評估公司周圍情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益（EPS）與股價進行比較。
During the last year Gap grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
在過去的一年裏，Gap的每股收益有所增長，從虧損轉爲盈利。
When a company is just on the edge of profitability it can be well worth considering other metrics in order to more precisely gauge growth (and therefore understand share price movements).
當一個公司處於盈利邊緣時，考慮其他指標以更精確地衡量增長（因此了解股價的走勢）可能非常值得。
Revenue was pretty stable on last year, so deeper research might be needed to explain the share price rise.
去年的收入相當穩定，因此可能需要進行更深入的研究才能解釋股價上漲。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下圖像顯示了公司的營業收入和盈利（隨時間變化）（單擊以查看準確的數字）。
Gap is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
Gap爲投資者所熟知，並且許多聰明的分析師嘗試預測未來的利潤水平。考慮到我們有相當數量的分析師預測，因此查看這個免費圖表顯示的共識預測可能很值得。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢？
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Gap, it has a TSR of 166% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
在考慮投資回報時，重要的是考慮總股東回報（TSR）和股票回報之間的差異。 TSR包括任何剝離或折讓的資本籌集（基於股息被重新投資的假設），以及任何股息。因此，對於支付慷慨的股息公司而言，TSR通常比股票回報高得多。就中國神威藥業集團而言，其TSR在過去5年中達到了75％。這超過了我們之前提到的股票回報。該公司支付的股息已經提高了總股東回報。總股東回報和股票回報TSR是一種回報計算方法，考慮到現金股息的價值（假定任何獲得的股息都被再投資），以及任何折價的資本募集和剝離的計算價值。可以說，在支付股息的股票上，TSR提供了更完整的圖景。對於Gap來說，過去1年的TSR爲166％。這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果！
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
It's nice to see that Gap shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 166% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Gap has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
很高興看到Gap股東們在過去一年中獲得了總股東回報166％的收益，包括股息。這比過去五年的年化回報率9％要好，表明該公司近年來的表現更好。具有樂觀視角的人可以將TSR的最近改善視爲表明公司本身隨着時間推移而變得更好。我認爲通過長期股價作爲業務表現的代理來看待股價變化非常有趣。但是爲了真正獲得洞察力，我們需要考慮其他信息。例如承擔風險 - 我們認爲Gap有 2個警告信號 ，你應該意識到它們。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
對於那些喜歡尋找獲勝投資的人來說，最近有內部購買的低估公司免費列表可能是一個很好的選擇。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意，本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。