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季度销量乐观能否改写美国电动车“道阻且长”? 分析师:难!

Can optimistic quarterly sales rewrite the difficult path for electric cars in USA? Analyst: Difficult!

Zhitong Finance ·  10:35

According to the latest news from Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, after high interest rates led to a significant slowdown in demand, electric car sales in the United States exceeded expectations in the second quarter, which relieved investors. However, the road ahead for electric car manufacturers is still bumpy. On Tuesday, General Motors (GM.US), Rivian (RIVN.US), and Toyota Motor (TM.US) announced optimistic data on deliveries of electric vehicles, and the decline in Tesla's (TSLA.US) sales was better than expected, prompting investors to enter the market and push up the stock prices of some companies. Due to high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and consumer preference for hybrid vehicles, demand for electric cars is growing slower than expected. This has led Tesla and other electric car brands to significantly lower prices or offer greater incentives to attract consumers. Analysts said the pressure to continue reducing manufacturing and battery costs would not disappear.

General Motors (GM.US), Rivian (RIVN.US), and Toyota Motor (TM.US) announced optimistic data on deliveries of electric vehicles on Tuesday, and the decline in Tesla's (TSLA.US) sales was better than expected, prompting investors to enter the market and push up the stock prices of some companies.

Due to high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and consumer preference for hybrid vehicles, the demand growth rate of electric cars is lower than expected. This has led Tesla and other electric car brands to significantly lower prices or offer greater incentives to attract consumers.

Analysts said the pressure to continue reducing manufacturing and battery costs would not disappear.

According to the data from the International Energy Agency, global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase from 13.7 million vehicles in 2023 to 16.6 million vehicles this year, with China's growth rate surpassing other regions.

However, analysts warn that Tuesday's sales data is not enough to predict the renewed acceleration of electric vehicle sales growth.

Sam Fiorani, vice president of the research company AutoForecast Solutions, said: "We expect that there will be bumps in the next few years as the transition from early adopters to mainstream buyers takes place, and we will see this situation continue for a long time."

"Some quarters will grow, some quarters will decline, but overall, there will not be the strong growth we have seen in the past few years," he added.

General Motors' electric vehicle sales in the United States grew by 40% in the second quarter. Marissa West, president of General Motors North America, said in a statement: "As more and more customers embrace electric vehicles, we are winning; if they are willing to continue to use the familiar engine technology, we will be able to continue to win."

Even Toyota, which relies on strong sales of hybrid vehicles, mentioned the growth in demand. The company plans to produce two new electric vehicles for the US market at its factories in Kentucky and Indiana starting in 2026.

Damon Rose, vice president of sales at the Toyota brand, told foreign media, "We continue to hear some positive demand from the market." A Kia Motors spokesperson said that although the growth rate may not be as rapid as a year ago, overall sales of electric cars are still growing at a very strong pace.

Rivian, Tesla and Hyundai did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

To stimulate demand, China has provided subsidies of up to 10,000 yuan ($1,375.29) for trading in old cars for new ones, and Tesla and other automakers in the market offer interest-free loans and zero down payment options to attract consumers.

These incentives, as well as similar efforts by Tesla in the United States, help the electric car market leader exceed delivery expectations for the second consecutive quarter despite a decline in sales.

Matt Britzman, a Tesla shareholder and stock analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said, "But now is not the time to declare victory over the sluggish electric vehicle market. Tesla needs an extremely strong performance in the second half of the year to catch up with last year's sales, which may not be possible."

In the past few months, Tesla has shifted its focus to the field of artificial intelligence, such as the upcoming Robotaxi product and the Optimus humanoid robot, to cope with the impact of the slowdown in electric car sales. Electric cars account for more than 80% of Tesla's quarterly revenue.

However, enthusiasts of electric vehicles are not shaken by any warning signs.

Thomas Montero, an analyst at Investing.com, said in an email: "Given the bearishness of the electric vehicle market, especially Tesla, in the past few quarters, these factors should lead to Wall Street's revaluation of this sector."

"Catalysts for multiple positivity are coming together at the right time. All we can say is that compared to just two months ago, the prospects for electric vehicles, at least for large companies, look much brighter," he added.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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