Those Who Invested in Hershey (NYSE:HSY) Five Years Ago Are up 46%
Those Who Invested in Hershey (NYSE:HSY) Five Years Ago Are up 46%
When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) share price is up 32% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 28% in the last year.
當你長揸股票時,你肯定希望它能提供正回報。此外,你通常希望看到股價上漲快於市場。不幸的是，對於股東來說，好時公司（紐交所：HSY）的股價在過去五年中上漲了32％，低於市場回報。放大看，股票在過去一年中實際下跌了28％。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
鑑於此，值得看看該公司的基本面是否一直是長期業績的驅動因素，或者是否存在一些不一致之處。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的話說，“船隻會在世界各地航行，但是持平地球學會會蓬勃發展。在市場上，價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差距……”評估公司周圍情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益（EPS）與股價進行比較。
During five years of share price growth, Hershey achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 6% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.
在五年的股價上漲期間，好時公司的每股收益複合增長率（EPS）爲14％，每年平均增長率高於6％的股價成長率。因此，可以得出結論，整個市場對這支股票變得更加謹慎。
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
該公司的每股收益（隨時間的推移）如下圖所示（單擊可查看確切數字）。
We know that Hershey has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
我們知道好時公司最近改善了其盈利能力，但它是否會增長營業收入呢？如果您感興趣，可以查看此自由報告，其中顯示了共識營收預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢？
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Hershey the TSR over the last 5 years was 46%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了測量股票的股價收益之外，投資者還應考慮股東總回報率（TSR）。TSR包括任何分拆或折價籌集資本的價值，以及任何股息，基於股息再投資的假設。可以說，TSR給出了支付股息的股票的更完整的圖像。我們注意到，好時公司過去5年的TSR爲46％，比上述股價回報更佳。可以毫不費力地猜到，股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧！
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Hershey shareholders are down 26% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Hershey has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
即使包括股息在內，好時公司的股東今年下跌了26％，但市場本身上漲了23％。即使好股票的股價有時也會下跌，但在感興趣之前，我們想看到業務的基本指標有所改善。由於長期的可持續增長數據，長期投資者不會感到如此沮喪,在過去的五年中，他們每年可以獲得8％的回報率。如果基本數據繼續表明長期的可持續增長，當前的拋售可能值得考慮。儘管仔細考慮市場狀況對股價的不同影響是值得的，但還有其他更重要的因素。例如，承擔風險-艾衛公司有1個警告信號，我們認爲您應該了解。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您願意查看另一家公司-具有潛在更優質財務狀況的公司-則不要錯過這個免費的公司列表，這些公司已經證明他們可以增長收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意，本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。