Last week, the United States held the first presidential candidate TV debate of this year's election, which attracted the attention of many. As the election process progresses, the duel between incumbent President Biden and Republican challenger Trump will become more intense. In terms of the product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products have operating incomes of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

At the same time, the market has started to give predictions about the impact of the election on the market, and began to price the election results. Analysts at Bernstein said that cryptocurrencies may be the main 'Trump trade' in the current election cycle. Analysts wrote that, on the Republican side, not only do they see cryptocurrencies as a vote bank, but they also see them as a significant source of funds. If the election sentiment becomes more Republican, cryptocurrencies will eventually become the main 'Trump trade', and expectations of favorable regulatory regimes will change the narrative around blockchain use cases.

From the reaction of the financial markets, it seems to confirm this point. After the first round of debates in the US election, Trump led in support rates, and bitcoin also started to rebound, briefly surpassing the $63,000 mark. Overnight, US stock cryptocurrency concept stocks also collectively rose: Cipher Mining(CIFR.US) rose by nearly 17%, Iris Energy (IREN.US) rose by nearly 14%, Argo Blockchain(ARBK.UK) rose by 12%, Marathon Digital Holdings(MARA.US) rose nearly 9%, and Riot Blockchain(RIOT.US) rose by over 5%.

Could Bitcoin become the next 'Trump Trade'? In early June, Trump met with leaders of several bitcoin mining companies at his Lake House and expressed his support for cryptocurrencies. He said that if he becomes president again, he will be an advocate for the cryptocurrency mining industry. Shortly thereafter, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social account, saying that he hopes all remaining bitcoins are 'made in America'. In addition, historical data shows that bitcoin has often risen with each US election. However, some market views believe that the presidential election coincides with the bitcoin halving cycle, so the halving event has a more direct impact on the price of bitcoin.

Will Ethereum spot ETF become another catalyst? Market views believe that although the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, it still remains above 0.8, which means that the mutual influence between the two is very obvious. If the Ethereum spot ETF, which is expected to be officially listed for trading in early July, can drive Ethereum to rebound again, Bitcoin may also receive some upward momentum from it.$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$However, it is worth noting that due to the impact of the halving event, the income of the mining community is not optimistic recently, and the unit computing power income has reached the lowest level in history. At the same time as the computing power is decreasing, the mining community has also been increasing its selling pressure, becoming one of the biggest selling pressures in the market. From June 13 to June 24, the US Bitcoin ETF also experienced a continuous seven-day net outflow of funds, but recently it has started to turn positive.$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$, $Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)$Increased by nearly 14%,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$, $Iris Energy (IREN.US)$Also increased by 12%.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Increased by almost 9%,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$Increased by more than 5%.

Could Bitcoin become the next 'Trump Trade'?

In early June, Trump met with leaders of several bitcoin mining companies at his Lake House and expressed his support for cryptocurrencies. He said that if he becomes president again, he will be an advocate for the cryptocurrency mining industry. Shortly thereafter, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social account, saying that he hopes all remaining bitcoins are 'made in America'.

In addition, historical data shows that bitcoin has often risen with each US election.

Previously, Trump's campaign team announced that it accepts cryptocurrency donations, which is seen as a high-profile embrace of the cryptocurrency industry. In recent weeks, Trump has increased his friendly image promotion for cryptocurrencies, even calling himself the "Cryptocurrency President." However, on the other hand, he has not given any specific policy details.

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that as the U.S. election approaches, bitcoin prices will reach $100,000. If Trump successfully takes the White House, the price of bitcoin may reach $150,000.

However, some market views believe that the presidential election coincides with the bitcoin halving cycle, so the halving event has a more direct impact on the price of bitcoin.

Will Ethereum spot ETF become another catalyst?

Eight asset management companies, including BlackRock, VanEck, Franklin Templeton Fund Group, and Grayscale Investments, are seeking SEC approval for these Ethereum funds. Most of these companies launched spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, the culmination of a decade-long struggle with regulators.

Market views believe that although the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, it still remains above 0.8, which means that the mutual influence between the two is very obvious. If the Ethereum spot ETF, which is expected to be officially listed for trading in early July, can drive Ethereum to rebound again, Bitcoin may also receive some upward momentum from it.

However, it is worth noting that due to the impact of the halving event, the income of the mining community is not optimistic recently, and the unit computing power income has reached the lowest level in history. At the same time as the computing power is decreasing, the mining community has also been increasing its selling pressure, becoming one of the biggest selling pressures in the market. From June 13 to June 24, the US Bitcoin ETF also experienced a continuous seven-day net outflow of funds, but recently it has started to turn positive.

Mooers,

Do you think that as the US election progresses,

Will cryptos become the next investment hotspot?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section~

Editor/Somer