Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Cognizant Technology Solutions fair value estimate is US$125
Cognizant Technology Solutions is estimated to be 46% undervalued based on current share price of US$67.73
Our fair value estimate is 62% higher than Cognizant Technology Solutions' analyst price target of US$76.71
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (NASDAQ:CTSH) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Method
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$2.02b
US$2.39b
US$2.57b
US$2.92b
US$3.21b
US$3.43b
US$3.61b
US$3.78b
US$3.92b
US$4.06b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x6
Analyst x7
Analyst x6
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 6.81%
Est @ 5.48%
Est @ 4.55%
Est @ 3.90%
Est @ 3.44%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%
US$1.9k
US$2.1k
US$2.1k
US$2.2k
US$2.2k
US$2.2k
US$2.2k
US$2.1k
US$2.1k
US$2.0k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$21b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$83b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= US$41b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$62b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$67.7, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS:CTSH Discounted Cash Flow June 28th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cognizant Technology Solutions as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.086. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cognizant Technology Solutions
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend information for CTSH.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the IT market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
What else are analysts forecasting for CTSH?
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Cognizant Technology Solutions, there are three relevant elements you should explore:
Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Cognizant Technology Solutions you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does CTSH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
