The projected fair value for CRH is US$120 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$74.50 suggests CRH is potentially 38% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 23% higher than CRH's analyst price target of US$97.73
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of CRH plc (NYSE:CRH) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$2.92b
US$3.42b
US$3.99b
US$4.32b
US$5.06b
US$5.53b
US$5.94b
US$6.28b
US$6.58b
US$6.85b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x11
Analyst x11
Analyst x9
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Est @ 9.42%
Est @ 7.31%
Est @ 5.83%
Est @ 4.80%
Est @ 4.07%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%
US$2.7k
US$2.9k
US$3.1k
US$3.1k
US$3.4k
US$3.4k
US$3.4k
US$3.3k
US$3.2k
US$3.0k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$31b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$114b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= US$51b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$82b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$74.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:CRH Discounted Cash Flow June 28th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CRH as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.119. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for CRH
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend information for CRH.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Basic Materials industry.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Basic Materials market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
What else are analysts forecasting for CRH?
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For CRH, there are three relevant items you should assess:
Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for CRH we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does CRH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
