UNITED ENERGY(467.HK):OVERHANG ON SHARE PRICE DUE TO UNCERTAIN FINANCIAL CONDITION OF CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER
UNITED ENERGY(467.HK):OVERHANG ON SHARE PRICE DUE TO UNCERTAIN FINANCIAL CONDITION OF CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER
Orient Group (600811 CH, NR) announced last week that it was not able to withdraw deposits from Orient Finance, a sister company of Orient Group, as Orient Finance is facing financial difficulties. As at 17 Jun 2024, Orient Group's total deposit amount in Orient Finance was RMB1.64bn while the total borrowing was RMB666mn (net deposit: RMB974mn). ZHANG Hong Wei, the major shareholder of the Orient Group, Orient Finance as well as United Energy (UEG), agreed to improve the financial condition of Orient Finance, through the disposal of UEG's shares over the coming 3-6 months. In addition, ZHANG agreed to utilise the cash from his pledged UEG's shares to support Orient Finance. ZHANG has pledged ~1.86bn shares of UEG for ~RMB2.35bn of borrowings.
東方證券集團(600811 CH, NR)上週宣佈，由於東方金融面臨財務困難，無法從東方證券集團旗下的姊妹公司東方金融中提取存款。截至2024年6月17日，東方證券集團在東方金融的總存款額爲16.4億元人民幣，總借款額爲6.66億元人民幣(淨存款：9.74億元人民幣)。東方證券集團、東方金融及United Energy (UEG)的大股東ZHANG Hong Wei同意通過未來3-6個月內出售UEG的股份來改善東方金融的財務狀況。此外，ZHANG同意利用所抵押的UEG股票的現金來支持東方金融。ZHANG已質押了約18.6億股UEG換取了大約23.5億元的借款。
Given that the financial situation of Orient Finance is unknown at this stage, we believe such arrangement suggests substantial uncertainties and creates an overhang on the stock price of UEG, at least over the coming 3-6 months. While our earnings forecast remains unchanged, we revise down our TP to HK$0.3, benchmarking to the current price and implying 2.5x 2024E P/E (Our Brent price assumption in 2024E is US$87 per barrel). Downgrade to HOLD from Buy. We will be more constructive on UEG when the incident at the controlling shareholder level has a positive development.
考慮到目前東方金融的財務狀況未知，我們認爲這樣的安排意味着存在重大不確定性，對UEG的股價至少在未來3-6個月內會產生拖累影響。雖然我們的收益預測保持不變，但我們將目標價下調至0.3港元，基準爲當前價格，意味着2024E P/E倍數爲2.5倍(我們2024E布蘭特原油價格假設爲每桶87美元)。從買入評級下調爲持有評級。當控股股東層面的事件有積極進展時，我們會更加積極看待UEG。
Upside risks: 1) An improvement of financial condition of Orient Finance; 2) potential disposal of shares to strategic investors; 3) potential sizeable share buyback.
上漲風險：1) 東方金融財務狀況的改善；2) 可能向戰略投資者出售股份；3) 可能進行大規模股票回購。
Downside risks: 1) High volatility of share price due to potential share sales; 2) low visibility on trading business; 3) decline in crude & gas price; 4) further impairment loss; 5) rising receivables.
下跌風險：1) 可能股份拋售導致股價波動較大；2) 交易業務的可見度較低；3) 原油和天然氣價格下降；4) 進一步減值損失；5) 應收賬款增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。