XIAOMI(1810.HK):CMBI CORP DAY TAKEAWAYS:GROWTH OUTLOOK INTACT;MARKET CONCERNS OVERDONE
XIAOMI(1810.HK):CMBI CORP DAY TAKEAWAYS:GROWTH OUTLOOK INTACT;MARKET CONCERNS OVERDONE
We hosted Xiaomi at CMBI Technology Corporate Day on 27 Jun. Investors were mostly focused on market concerns regarding margin impact on rising memory prices, competitive landscape with AI iPhone launch and growth outlook of Xiaomi SU7 Series EV. We summarize key highlights as below, and maintain our positive view on Xiaomi's global smartphone share gains, AIoT sales strength, overseas internet revenue and EV shipment ramp-up. Reiterate BUY with SOTP-based TP of HK$25.39. Upcoming catalysts include SU7 shipment and market share gains.
我們在6月27日的招商銀行國際科技日活動上接待了小米。投資者們主要關注了市場對於內存價格上漲的影響、人工智能iPhone推出的競爭格局，以及小米SU7系列電動汽車的增長前景等問題。我們將以下主要亮點總結如下，並維持對於小米在全球智能手機份額增長、AIoT銷售實力、境外互聯網收入以及電動汽車的出貨量逐步提升的正面觀點。我們重申BUY評級，並基於SOTP法計算出目標價爲25.39港元。即將到來的亮點包括SU7的出貨量和市場份額增長。
Debate 1: GPM pressure on memory cost hikes. Mgmt. view: Limited impact with price stabilising into 2H24E. Media reported Samsung will raise memory prices in 3Q24 (news), but we see limited impact on Xiaomi as price hikes of 15-20% focus on server DRAM/enterprise NAND Flash. For mobile DRAM, the price hike is expected to slow to 3-8% QoQ in 3Q24E (vs 5-10% in 2Q). Xiaomi expects smartphone GPM to slightly trend down QoQ in 2Q24E after digestion of low-cost memory inventory in 1Q24, and GPM impact will smooth out in 2H24E given memory ASP stabilizing, high- end model launches (MIX Fold 4, Xiaomi 15), and better cost control.
辯論1：內存成本上漲對毛利率的壓力。管理層觀點：隨着價格在2024年下半年穩定，影響有限。媒體報道，三星將在3Q24提高內存價格（新聞），但我們認爲小米受到的影響有限，因爲15-20%的價格上漲聚焦於服務器DRAM/企業NAND閃存。對於移動DRAM而言，價格上漲預計在3Q24結束時環比上漲3-8%（2Q爲5-10%）。小米預計，智能手機毛利率在1Q24消化低成本存貨後，將會在2Q24環比略微下降，而隨着內存ASP穩定、高端型號的推出（MIX Fold 4、小米15）以及更好的成本控制，毛利率的影響將在2H24平穩下來。
Debate 2: Xiaomi SU7 EV orders to potentially slow down into 2H24E. Mgmt. view: 120k SU7 annual delivery target intact with production accelerating. Regarding concerns about SU7 order slowdown, Xiaomi reiterated guidance of 120k EV annual deliveries and 10k monthly deliveries in June, and Xiaomi EV factory started double-shift production in June, boosting capacity to 20k/m. Average waiting time for SU7 is around 30w now. In order to better manage customer orders given capacity constraints, the time allowed for free order cancelation was reduced from 7 days to 3 days since 5 Jun.
辯論2：小米SU7電動汽車訂單可能在2024下半年開始減緩。管理層觀點：120,000輛SU7年度交付目標仍將保持，生產加速。針對SU7訂單減速的擔憂，小米6月份重申了120,000輛電動汽車年度交付目標和10,000輛每月交付目標，並於6月份開始雙班產量生產工作，將產能提升到每月20,000輛。目前SU7的平均等待時間約爲30周。爲了更好地管理客戶訂單，因爲容量受限，自6月5日起，免費訂單取消時間從7天減少到3天。
Debate 3: Impact from AI iPhone launch in 2H24E. Mgmt. view: global share gains to continue with strong AIoT ecosystem. Xiaomi is confident to achieve 165mn shipment target in 2024 (vs 146mn in 2023) as overseas expansion continues in LATAM, Africa, Middle East and Southeast Asia. As for AI phone, Xiaomi is well-positioned to accelerate share gains backed by its strong AIoT ecosystem, self-developed HyperOS and AI-powered voice assistant (Xiao AI). Xiaomi's 'MiLM' LLM will be integrated into smartphones, cars, and other devices after passing registration in May 2024.
辯論3：AI iPhone在2024下半年的影響。管理層觀點：全球份額將在強大的AIoT生態系統下繼續增長。小米有信心在LATAM、非洲、中東和東南亞等地繼續擴大海外業務，達到2024年165mn的出貨目標（2023年爲146mn）。至於AI手機，小米憑藉其強大的AIoT生態系統、自主研發的HyperOS和AI語音助手（小愛同學）等支持而處於有利地位。小米的“MiLM” LLM在5月份通過註冊後，將在智能手機、汽車和其他設備中進行集成。
Recent correction offers good buying opportunity. We believe market concerns are overdone, and the stock is attractive at 16.7x/15.2x FY24/25E P/E. Earnings upside likely comes from further share gains and SU7's better margin. Reiterate BUY with TP of HK$25.39, implying 25x FY24E P/E.
近期的修正爲購買提供了良好的機會。我們認爲市場擔憂過度，股票在16.7x/15.2x FY24/25E P/E的估值水平上具有吸引力。盈利上漲有可能來自於進一步增長和SU7更好的毛利率。我們重申BUY評級，目標價爲25.39港元，暗示FY24E P/E爲25倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。