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大行评级|摩根大通:工行股东大会启示积极 净息差可能会超过之前指引

JPMorgan's credit rating report: ICBC's shareholders' meeting was positive, and net interest margin may exceed previous guidance.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jun 28 10:57
On June 28th, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that seven domestic banks had held shareholder meetings in the past few days, of which summaries of the meetings were released by China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Minsheng Bank. The bank believes that the interpretation of the entire industry is positive due to the stable net interest margin and stable asset quality. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the inspiration of the ICBC shareholder meeting was the most positive, because the management stated that the net interest spread may exceed the previous guidance, loan growth will be higher than the industry average, the non-performing loan formation rate of credit card loans is decreasing, the LTV (loan-to-value ratio) of loans to real estate developers is only 42%, and the local government's debt relief plan has raised the return on financing guarantee loans, all of which have improved asset quality. The report indicates that the inspiration of China Merchants Bank's shareholder meeting is more neutral because there is no new information or guidance at the shareholder meeting. The inspiration of Minsheng Bank's shareholder meeting is negative because the management is cautious about the net interest spread, and asset quality is unlikely to improve significantly from its current level. Morgan Stanley believes that the net interest margin of banks is stabilizing, but the trend is different among banks. If the LPR (loan prime rate) is lowered again in the third quarter, the net interest margin in fiscal year 2024 is expected to be lower by a few basis points compared to the first quarter. Comments from the three banks mentioned above indicate that ICBC's net interest margin narrowing may be the smallest, while Minsheng Bank's net interest margin narrowing may be the largest. The bank believes that Minsheng Bank will face greater pressure because of the insufficient demand for small and medium-sized enterprise loans, while Minsheng Bank is trying to optimize its asset-liability portfolio.

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