Bank Stress Tests 'Much Bigger Surprise Than Expected,' Will Delay Future Investment Plans: JPMorgan
Bank Stress Tests 'Much Bigger Surprise Than Expected,' Will Delay Future Investment Plans: JPMorgan
A JPMorgan analyst has reacted to the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results for U.S. banks, which assess their resilience by estimating losses, revenues, expenses, and capital levels under various economic scenarios. The results were announced on Wednesday.
摩根大通的分析師對美國銀行進行了年度壓力測試結果的反應，這些測試通過估計在各種經濟情景下的損失、收入、支出和資本水平來評估它們的抗壓能力。這些結果是在週三公佈的。
Key Insights: Analyst Vivek Juneja recapped the stress test for large-cap banks, with the results being a "much bigger surprise than expected."
關鍵見解：分析師Vivek Juneja回顧了大型銀行的壓力測試，結果比預期的更讓人驚訝。
The tests returned a substantial increase in stress capital buffers (SCB) at the majority of large-cap banks, leading to a corresponding increase in capital requirements.
測試結果顯示，大多數大型銀行的壓力資本緩衝區(SCB)有了顯著增長，導致相應的資本要求也增加了。
"We expect this sharp increase in capital requirements may delay or reduce long term capital return plans. All our banks comfortably exceed their minimum requirements and should benefit from further accretion of OCI losses. However, the money center banks in our universe will now have lower cushion of 1.2-1.4% over minimum requirement in CET1 [Common Equity Tier 1] ratio, with one broker dealer at a much thinner 70bp cushion," the analyst said.
分析師稱：“我們預計這種資本要求的大幅增加可能會延遲或減少長期的資本回報計劃。我們所有的銀行都舒適地超過了其最低要求，並應從進一步吸引敞口偏差(OCI)損失中受益。然而，我們所覆蓋的錢中心銀行現在在公共股本一級(Core Equity Tier 1，CET1)比率的最低要求上只有1.2-1.4%的低墊子，一個券商在70點子的低墊子。”
Winners and Losers: Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) fared comparatively well, according to Juneja. SCB is likely to decline by 20bp. The Fed's test skewed toward a harsher U.S. recession, which benefitted banks such as Citi which depend on foreign revenues.
優勝者和輸家：根據Juneja的說法，花旗銀行表現相對良好。SCB可能會下降20bp。聯儲局的測試偏向更嚴重的美國經濟衰退，這使得那些依賴海外收入的銀行，如花旗銀行等，從中受益。
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) got the shorter end of the stick. Both had SCBs raised by 90bp each (using consensus dividends, Goldman would have a 100bp raise).
高盛和富國銀行則處於劣勢。兩者的SCB分別上升了90bp (利用共識派息，高盛將有100bp的漲幅)。
All banks discussed by the analyst are "well above" capital ratios, but several large names had narrow cushions. Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) will have the narrowest cushion of 120bp on its CET1 ratio, per Juneja. Citi and Wells Fargo will have a 140bp each.
分析師提到的所有銀行的資本比率都“遠高於”要求，但是有幾個大型銀行的低墊子很窄。據Juneja透露，美國銀行的公共股本一級比率的低墊子只有120bp。花旗銀行和富國銀行各爲140bp。
USB Downgrade: The analyst downgraded U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) from Overweight to Neutral with a price target of $43.50 following the stress test.
降級：該分析師將美國合衆銀行從Overweight調降至中立，目標價爲43.50美元，此前該銀行參加了壓力測試。
"The sharp increase in capital requirements adds another headwind and would delay capital return plans – we do not see a catalyst medium term. US Bancorp is one of our only banks that has indicated no plans for share buybacks."
該分析師表示：“資本要求的大幅增加增加了另一個壓力，將推遲資本回報計劃——我們認爲中期內不會出現催化劑。美國合衆銀行是我們唯一一家沒有宣佈股票回購計劃的銀行。”
The Market Reacts: Goldman Sachs fell 2.22% to $445.96 on Thursday.
據報道，高盛週四下跌2.22%，至445.96美元。
Shares of bank exchange-traded-funds fell following the results. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) was down 0.12% on the day.
銀行交易所交易基金的股份出現下跌趨勢，金融股票選擇性指數(ETF)的今日收盤價爲24.15美元，下跌了0.12%。
Comparatively, regional banks outperformed larger banks. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) closed 1.06% higher on Thursday.
相比之下，區域型銀行表現優於大型銀行。標普區域銀行ETF (NYSE:KRE)週四收盤上漲1.06%。
- Fed's 2024 Stress Test Results Worse Than Expected, Says Goldman Analyst: 'The Market Will View The Results As Disappointing'
- 高盛分析師表示，聯儲局2024年壓力測試結果比預期的還要糟糕。這將被市場視爲失望。
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
這張圖片是通過Midjourney使用人工智能生成的。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。