The Travelers Companies, Inc.'s (NYSE:TRV) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?
The Travelers Companies, Inc.'s (NYSE:TRV) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?
Travelers Companies (NYSE:TRV) has had a rough three months with its share price down 11%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. In this article, we decided to focus on Travelers Companies' ROE.
紐交所：TRV，保險業者Travelers Companies的股價在過去三個月表現不佳，下跌11%。然而，股價通常受到公司長期財務數據的影響，而在這個案例中，數據看起來相當可觀。在本文中，我們決定關注Travelers Companies的roe。
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
股東應考慮的重要因素是淨資產收益率或roe，因爲它告訴他們投資的資本如何被有效地再投資。簡單來說，它用於評估公司與其股權資本相關的盈利能力。
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
怎樣計算ROE?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
淨資產收益率可以使用以下公式進行計算：
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
淨資產收益率 = 淨利潤（從持續經營中獲得）÷ 股東權益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Travelers Companies is:
因此，基於以上公式，Travelers公司的roe爲：
13% = US$3.1b ÷ US$25b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
13％= US $ 3.1b÷ US $ 25b（基於截至2024年3月的過去12個月）。
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.13 in profit.
“回報”是指過去十二個月稅後所獲得的收入。這意味着，對於每1元的股東權益，公司創造了0.13元的利潤。
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
ROE與盈利增長有什麼關係？
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
我們已經確定ROE是一種有效的利潤生成標準，用於評估公司未來的盈利能力。我們現在需要評估公司“保留”爲未來增長而重新投資的利潤多少，這使我們對公司的增長潛力有了一個了解。一般而言，在其他條件相等的情況下，ROE和利潤留存高的公司，增長率比沒有這些屬性的公司要高。
Travelers Companies' Earnings Growth And 13% ROE
Travelers Companies的收益增長和13%的roe
At first glance, Travelers Companies seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 13%. Travelers Companies' decent returns aren't reflected in Travelers Companies'mediocre five year net income growth average of 3.6%. A few likely reasons that could be keeping earnings growth low are - the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
乍一看，Travelers Companies的roe似乎還不錯。與行業相比，我們發現平均行業roe爲13%。然而，Travelers Companies的不錯回報並未反映在其五年淨利潤增長率暴跌的3.6%中。但很有可能，這種未能獲得盈利增長的情況是由於公司高達負債率或業務資本分配不當所致。
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Travelers Companies' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 8.4% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.
接下來，我們發現與行業淨利潤增長相比，Travelers Companies的報告增長低於行業的8.4%，這不是我們想看到的。
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Travelers Companies''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
作爲一個長期投資者，重要的是要知道市場是否已經反映了公司預期的盈利增長（或下降）並賦予公司價值。通過這樣做，他們將知道股票是否進入清晰的藍色水域，或者是否等待着泥濘的水域。如果您想了解Travelers Companies的估值，請查看其市盈率與所在行業的比較。
Is Travelers Companies Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Travelers Companies是否有效地利用其留存收益？
While Travelers Companies has a decent three-year median payout ratio of 29% (or a retention ratio of 71%), it has seen very little growth in earnings. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.
儘管Travelers Companies的三年中位數分紅率達到29%（或保留率爲71%），但其收益增長微不足道。所以在這方面可能會有其他的解釋。例如，公司的業務可能正在惡化。
Additionally, Travelers Companies has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 21% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Travelers Companies' payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 15%, over the same period.
此外，Travelers Companies已經連續十年支付股息，這意味着公司的管理層決心支付股息，即使收益增長很少或沒有。現有的分析師預測表明，未來三年公司的股息支付比率有望降至21%。因此，Travelers Companies未來股息支付比率的下降就解釋了公司未來roe在同一期間內有望上升到15%。
Conclusion
結論
Overall, we feel that Travelers Companies certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
總體而言，我們認爲Travelers Companies確實有一些需要考慮的積極因素。然而，考慮到高roe和高利潤留存率，我們希望公司能夠提供強勁的盈利增長，但在這裏並沒有這種情況。這表明可能有一些對業務的外部威脅，導致業務增長受阻。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。