BOE VARITRONIX(710.HK):CMBI CORP DAY TAKEAWAYS:LARGE-SIZE/HIGH-END DISPLAY DEMAND CHENGDU PLANT AND OVERSEAS ORDERS
BOE VARITRONIX(710.HK):CMBI CORP DAY TAKEAWAYS:LARGE-SIZE/HIGH-END DISPLAY DEMAND CHENGDU PLANT AND OVERSEAS ORDERS
We hosted BOEVx at CMBI Technology Corporate Day on 26 Jun. Overall, mgmt. expects larger and high-end displays remain the major upgrade trend and BOEVx is well positioned to benefit given its industry leadership position. Mgmt. guided overall sales growth to outperform the market and NPM recovery on track in FY24E driven by ASP hikes, better operating efficiency, overseas orders and rapid growth of system products. Trading at 6.5x/5.7x FY24/25E (1-sd below avg.), we think the stock's risk-reward is attractive. Maintain BUY with TP of HK$10.94 based on 15x FY24E P/E.
我們在6月26日的招商局科技公司日上舉辦了BOEVx活動。管理層總體預計，更大、更高端的顯示屏仍將成爲主要的升級趨勢，並且BOEVx在行業領導地位的支持下有望受益。管理層指導整體銷售增長優於市場，FY24E淨利率恢復在軌，由ASP上漲、運營效率提高、境外訂單和系統產品快速增長推動。交易於FY24/25E（低於平均值1次標準差）的6.5x / 5.7x時，我們認爲該股票的風險回報仍有吸引力。根據15x FY24E P/E，維持買入，目標價爲10.94港元。
Large displays and high-end display products to drive ASP/NPM recovery; system biz maintains high growth. Mgmt. believes large displays, high-end displays and more complex modules remain the major upgrade trends, and reiterated guidance of 8%+ YoY sales growth, outperforming the industry average of 4% YoY. Specifically, mgmt. expects high-end products (Oxide/LTPS/OLED) to achieve 200%+ YoY growth with a rising sales contribution in FY24E. In addition, mgmt. stated overseas demand for high-end products is rapidly growing, and is positive on large displays and high-end products to drive ASP upside and NPM recovery. For system business, mgmt. guided 100%+ YoY growth in FY24E with sales contribution to exceed 5%/5- 10% in FY24/25E. Mgmt. also expects overseas market will achieve double-digit growth on overseas project wins.
大尺寸和高端顯示產品將推動ASP / NPM恢復；系統業務保持高增長。管理層認爲，大尺寸、高端顯示和更復雜的模塊仍然是主要升級趨勢，並重申了8% + YoY銷售增長的指導，超過4% YoY的行業平均水平。具體來說，管理層預計高端產品（氧化物/LTPS/OLED）將實現200% + YoY的增長，並在FY24E期間銷售貢獻不斷上升。此外，管理層表示境外對高端產品的需求正在快速增長，並且對大尺寸和高端產品推動ASP增長和NPM恢復持積極態度。對於系統業務，管理層指導FY24E的銷售增長爲100% + YoY，並且銷售貢獻將在FY24 / 25E超過5% / 5-10%。管理層還預計，境外市場將因海外項目獲勝而實現兩位數增長。
? Chengdu plant update: full capacity of 15mn+ pieces/month; Expect UTR to recover on a stabilising market in 2H24E. Mgmt. shared latest updates on Chengdu plant progress and key highlights include: 1) the plant is now running at full capacity with over 15mn pieces/month; 2) no new depreciation added to the plant; 3) 1H24 UTR is less than 100% due to production line shifting to small and rush orders (rather than demand slowdown) and mgmt. expects UTR to recover once the market stabilizes in 2H24E.
？成都工廠更新：月產能達到1500萬+件；預計UTR在2H24E的市場穩定後恢復。管理層分享了成都工廠進展的最新情況，其中關鍵亮點包括：1）工廠目前已達到滿負荷生產，月產能超過1500萬件；2）沒有新的折舊計入工廠；3）由於生產線轉向小訂單和緊急訂單（而不是需求放緩），1H24 UTR低於100%，管理層預計市場穩定後UTR將恢復。
NPM expected to recover in 2H24E; Maintain BUY. Overall, while macro weakness and customers' order slowdown will weigh on 1H24E profit, we expect margin recovery in 2H24E given less domestic capacity investment, better operation efficiency at Chengdu plant, ASP upside and more order wins on Parentco support. Maintain BUY and our TP of HK$10.94 is based on 15x FY24E P/E.
預計2H24E NPM會恢復；維持買入。總體而言，儘管宏觀經濟放緩和客戶訂單放緩將在1H24E擺脫利潤，但由於減少了國內產能投資、成都工廠的運營效率提高、ASP上漲和Parentco支持訂單的增加，我們預計2H24E會實現利潤率恢復。維持買入，我們的目標價10.94港元基於15x FY24E P / E。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。