ELECTION YEAR AND AI INVESTMENT STRATEGIES STAR IN AMERICAN CENTURY'S THIRD QUARTER INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
ELECTION YEAR AND AI INVESTMENT STRATEGIES STAR IN AMERICAN CENTURY'S THIRD QUARTER INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
American Century's chief investment officers share insights on navigating election year volatility and AI surprises
美國世紀首席投資官分享了在選舉年波動和人工智能驚喜中的應對策略
KANSAS CITY, Mo., June 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- In its third quarter investment outlook, American Century Investments, the $245 billion* global asset manager, shares investment strategies for election- and AI-related surprises. According to American Century, investors can expect political rhetoric to ramp up, both in the U.S., where both party conventions will occur this quarter, and across the globe, which will see head-of-state elections this year in countries representing 60% of the global economy. Despite any changes these elections may portend, American Century would not recommend political prognostication portfolio adjustments.
2024年6月26日，美國世紀投資公司發佈了第三季度投資展望，這家管理總資產達到2450億美元、覆蓋全球的公司分享了應對選舉和人工智能相關的投資策略。據美國世紀投資公司透露，投資者可以預期政治言論將在本季度內在美國和全球範圍內不斷升級，多個國家將在今年進行代表全球經濟60%的國家首腦選舉。儘管這些選舉可能會帶來任何變化，但美國世紀不建議進行政治預測進行組合調整。
"Historical data indicates that market volatility tends to pick up through Election Day but typically decreases afterward[i]," said Victor Zhang, chief investment officer of American Century. "The same research also shows that staying invested throughout the election year has delivered better results than attempting to maneuver in and out of the market. So, we wouldn't recommend that investors adjust their portfolios in anticipation of or in response to the turmoil."
“歷史數據表明，市場波動往往會在選舉日之前加劇，但通常會在選舉後減少[i]”，美國世紀首席投資官張海晏表示，“同樣的研究還表明，在整個選舉年期間保持投資比從市場中進出可以實現更好的結果。因此，我們不建議投資者因爲緊張情況而調整他們的組合。”
Staying the course despite election twists and turns; political risk small part of overall investment analysis
堅持走自己的路，不過多考慮政治風險問題，是整個投資分析中的一小部分
One reason moving in and out of the market can do more harm than good is because of the difficulty of accurately predicting a series of outcomes: who will win an election, the policies the winner will be able to put in effect and the impact those policies would have on business performance.
進出市場可能會造成更大的傷害，因爲準確預測一系列結果的難度非常大：誰會贏得選舉，獲勝者將能夠推行哪些政策，這些政策對商業績效會產生什麼影響。
"India's surprise results remind us that investors shouldn't bet on election outcomes with their portfolios. A lot could change between now and November; even those who correctly guess the outcome would have difficulty handicapping the policy impacts on individual businesses," said Zhang. "In the end, the performance of individual companies drives investment results."
“印度的出乎意料的結果提醒我們，投資者不應該用他們的投資組合來賭博選舉結果，現在到11月之間會發生很多變化。即使那些正確猜測結果的人也很難確定政策對個別企業的影響，”張海晏表示。“最終，單個公司的表現推動了投資結果。”
Keith Lee, global growth equity co-chief investment officer of American Century, explains that though actively monitoring risk exposure and quantifying political risks such as the impact of tariffs are important, the most significant part of the analysis is the individual security.
美國世紀全球成長股聯席投資官李奇麒解釋說，雖然積極監控風險暴露度以及量化政治風險，例如關稅影響等，但分析中最重要的部分是個體證券。
"We believe the companies we own have the potential to outperform their competitors because they're strong companies, not because of political factors. Our North Star is owning good businesses. We believe such companies — those with strong competitive positions and strong balance sheets — possess fundamental business strengths that make them well-positioned to ride out many risks," writes Lee.
“我們認爲我們擁有的公司有潛力在競爭對手中表現出色，因爲它們是強大的公司，而不是因爲政治因素。我們的北極星是擁有好的企業。我們相信這樣的公司——那些具有強大競爭地位和強健的資產負債表——擁有基本的商業實力，使它們處於良好的風險位勢以應對許多風險。”李奇麒寫道。
Passive investments may miss AI surprises
被動投資可能會錯過人工智能驚喜
The chief investment officers at American Century make the case to look beyond the biggest, most obvious winners in the AI theme to under-the-radar smaller cap companies.
美國世紀的首席投資官主張，應該關注在人工智能領域隱藏的小型公司而非最大最顯眼的贏家。
"AI is driving earnings growth for small- and mid-sized companies in developed and emerging markets. Many are businesses that investors using a passive investment approach might miss," said Zhang.
“人工智能正在推動開發和新興市場的中小型企業的盈利增長，許多公司是那些採用被動投資方式的投資者會錯過的業務，”張海晏表示。
Additionally, Kevin Toney, global value equity chief investment officer of American Century, points out that AI may boost the "relatively snoozy" utility sector with a growing demand for electricity for the first time in decades. However, utilities may need more transmission capacity and regulated utilities may be more limited than independent power producers.
此外，美國世紀全球價值股聯席投資官凱文·託尼指出，人工智能可能會提高“相對沉悶”的公用事業部門的需求，在幾十年來首次增長的情況下需求日益增加。然而，公用事業公司可能需要更多的輸電能力，受監管的公用事業公司可能比獨立的發電公司更受限制。
"For now, we think utilities can be an unexpected beneficiary in the wider frenzy over AI. For the first time in decades, AI may drive significant new demand for electricity," said Toney. "Other factors are also driving electricity demand. Electric vehicles will significantly increase the need for electricity, especially as demand for them picks up from their current doldrums. The reshoring of manufacturing and supply chains, such as semiconductor plants and electric vehicle plants, is also amplifying electricity needs. But AI leads the surge."
“目前，我們認爲公用事業公司可能會成爲人工智能範圍內意外的受益者。幾十年來，人工智能可能會帶來對電力的顯著新需求，”託尼說。“其他因素也推動了電力需求。新能源汽車的需求將大幅增加，尤其是從當前低迷的需求中起身。製造業和供應鏈的回流，如半導體工廠和新能源汽車工廠，也在放大用電需求。但人工智能引領了這場風潮。”
For more investment insights for the third quarter, read the full American Century investment outlook , with insights on:
更多的第三季度投資見解，請閱讀全文的美國世紀投資展望，其中涉及：
- Global macroeconomic outlook,
- U.S. equity outlook,
- Global equity outlook,
- Global fixed income outlook,
- Multi-asset strategies outlook and
- Sustainable investing trends.
- 全球宏觀經濟前景,
- 美國股票前景,
- 全球股票前景,
- 全球固定收益前景,
- 多資產策略前景,
- 可持續投資趨勢。
About American Century Investments
關於美利堅世紀投資
American Century Investments is a leading global asset manager focused on delivering investment results and building long-term client relationships while supporting breakthrough medical research. Founded in 1958, American Century Investments' 1,400 employees serve financial professionals, institutions, corporations and individual investors from offices in Kansas City, Missouri; New York; Los Angeles; Santa Clara, California; Portland, Oregon; London; Frankfurt, Germany; Hong Kong; and Sydney. Jonathan S. Thomas is president and chief executive officer, and Victor Zhang serves as chief investment officer. Delivering investment results to clients enables American Century Investments to distribute over 40% of its dividends to the Stowers Institute for Medical Research, a 500-person, nonprofit basic biomedical research organization. The Institute owns more than 40% of American Century Investments and has received dividend payments of more than $2 billion since 2000. For more information about American Century Investments, visit .
美利堅世紀投資是一家領先的全球資產管理公司，專注於提供投資業績和建立長期客戶關係，同時支持突破性的醫學研究。美利堅世紀投資成立於1958年，其1,400名員工爲來自堪薩斯城，密蘇里州的金融專業人士，機構，公司和個人投資者提供服務，並在紐約，洛杉磯，加利福尼亞州聖克拉拉，俄勒岡州波特蘭，倫敦，德國法蘭克福，香港和悉尼設有辦事處。喬納森S.托馬斯是總裁兼首席執行官，維克多·張擔任首席投資官。通過向客戶提供投資業績，美利堅世紀投資能夠將其超過40％的股息分配給醫學研究的Stowers研究所，這是一家擁有500名員工的非盈利基礎生物醫學研究機構。該機構擁有美利堅世紀投資超過40％的股份，並自2000年以來收到了超過20億美元的股息支付。有關美利堅世紀投資的更多信息，請訪問.
*Assets under supervision as of 5/31/24.
2024 American Century Proprietary Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved
*資產管理截至5/31/24。
2024美利堅世紀專有控股公司。版權所有。
References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to purchase or sell securities. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and, along with other portfolio data, are subject to change without notice.
特定證券的引用僅用於說明目的，不旨在作爲購買或出售證券的建議。提供的意見和估計構成我們的判斷，並且與其他組合數據一起可能會發生變化，恕不另行通知。
International investing involves special risks, such as political instability and currency fluctuations. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.
國際投資涉及特殊風險，如政治不穩定和貨幣波動。投資新興市場可能會加劇這些風險。
Historically, small- and/or mid-cap stocks have been more volatile than the stock of larger, more-established companies. Smaller companies may have limited resources, product lines and markets, and their securities may trade less frequently and in more limited volumes than the securities of larger companies.
從歷史上看，小公司和/或中型公司的股票比更大更成熟的公司的股票更加波動。較小的公司可能具有有限的資源，產品線和市場，它們的證券可能交易得不如較大公司的證券頻繁且交易量有限。
Diversification does not assure a profit nor does it protect against loss of principal.
分散投資並不保證盈利，也不能保護本金免受損失。
Generally, as interest rates rise, bond prices fall. The opposite is true when interest rates decline.
一般來說，隨着利率上升，債券價格下降。利率下降時情況相反。
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns will fluctuate and it is possible to lose money.
過去的業績不是未來業績的保證。投資回報將會波動，並且可能會虧損。
The opinions expressed are those of American Century Investments (or the portfolio manager) and are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments' portfolio. This material has been prepared for educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice.
所表達的觀點屬於美利堅世紀投資（或資產組合經理人），並不能保證任何美利堅世紀投資組合的未來業績。本材料僅用於教育目的。不旨在提供投資，會計，法律或稅務建議。
[i] Data from 11/6/1931 – 11/3/2021. Source: FactSet, U.S. National Archives, Library of Congress, American Century Investments.
[i] 數據取自1931年11月6日至2021年11月3日。來源：FactSet，美國國家檔案館，國會圖書館，美利堅世紀投資。
Contact: Nicole Glenna
(646) 658-7715
聯繫人：尼古拉.格倫納
(646) 658-7715
SOURCE American Century Investments
American Century Investments來源
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。