2024H1 performance is expected to increase significantly year-on-year, fundamentals continue to improve, and maintain a “buy” rating
The company released the 2024H1 performance forecast. 2024H1 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mother of 210 million yuan to 221 million yuan, +110%-130% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 181 million yuan - 210 million yuan, +166%-194% year-on-year.
2024Q2 is expected to achieve net profit of 120 million yuan to 139 million yuan, +95.87%-127.24% year over year, +46.80%-70.31% month-on-month; net profit without return to mother 115 million yuan - 135 million yuan, +144.93%-185.60% year over year, and +75.38%-104.50% month-on-month. The main reasons for the increase in 2024H1 profits are: (1) a significant increase in the downstream operating rate of the domestic semiconductor and OLED display panel industry; (2) a significant increase in the market share of the company's products. We maintain the company's profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 4.42/6.22/888 million yuan in 2024-2026, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 46.6/33.1/23.2 times. Optimistic about the long-term development of the company's semiconductor materials, maintaining a “buy” rating.
The company's optoelectronic semiconductor business is booming, with a significant year-on-year improvement in revenue. The core products are CMP polishing pads: 2024H1's CMP polishing pad products achieved revenue of 300 million yuan, +100.30% year over year; 2024Q2's CMP polishing pad products achieved revenue of 164 million yuan, +92.77% year over year, and +21.93% month on month. Net profit increased year-on-year, mainly due to significant increase in sales of polishing pad products, autonomous mass production of upstream raw materials and reduced fixed costs. CMP polishing pads and cleaning liquid: 2024H1's CMP polishing liquid and cleaning liquid products achieved total revenue of 77 million yuan, +190.87% year over year; 2024Q2 company's CMP polishing liquid and cleaning liquid products achieved total revenue of 41 million yuan, +179.13% year over year, and +13.56% month over month. Semiconductor display materials: 2024H1 quickly released semiconductor display materials such as YPI and PSPI, achieving revenue of 168 million yuan, +234.56% year over year; 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 98 million yuan, +163.69% year over year, and +39.93% month on month.
The company's general consumables business for printing and copying has maintained steady development, and verification of new materials is progressing smoothly. In the future, the company's general printing and copying consumables can be expected to achieve revenue of 800 million yuan, a slight increase over the previous year. At the same time, the company has increased the gross profit margin of its products through various policies such as cost reduction and efficiency, and product structure optimization. The company's semiconductor advanced packaging materials and other new material businesses such as wafer photoresists are continuing to be verified by clients, and progress is in line with the company's expectations. As the new product verification process continues to advance, the company's future performance can be expected to grow.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; capacity release falls short of expectations; customer acquisition falls short of expectations.