HAIDILAO(6862.HK):OUR VIEW ON MANAGEMENT CHANGES
HAIDILAO(6862.HK):OUR VIEW ON MANAGEMENT CHANGES
What is new? Haidilao (6862 HK, BUY) and Super Hi (9658 HK, NR) have announced a management change. Yang Lijuan resigned as the executive director and CEO of Haidilao and will become the executive director and CEO of Super Hi. Gou Yiqun will be appointed as the executive director and CEO of Haidilao.
有什麼新消息嗎？海底撈（6862 HK，買入）和超級嗨（9658 HK，中立）宣佈了一項管理變更。楊麗娟辭去了海底撈的執行董事和首席執行官職務，並將擔任超級嗨的執行董事和首席執行官。苟一群將被任命爲海底撈的執行董事和首席執行官。
CMBI's view: We don't think it is a negative to Haidilao as the company's operation is still improving and the potential for new store openings is still increasing. For Super Hi, we believe it should be a positive.
招商銀行國際的觀點：我們認爲這對海底撈不是一個負面因素，因爲該公司的業務仍在改善，新店開設的潛力仍在增加。對於超級嗨，我們認爲它應該是一個積極因素。
Regarding the departure of key person Ms. Yang, we think the impact on Haidilao is neutral:
關於重要人物楊女士的離開，我們認爲對海底撈的影響是中立的： 1）財務表現良好，絕對不會低於預期。如公告所述，2021年的啄木鳥計劃（關閉約300家門店，改善剩餘門店的運營，並原則上不開設任何新門店，直到餐桌週轉率恢復到4倍或以上）和2022年的硬骨頭計劃（重新開放部分先前關閉的門店）均已成功完成。目前的餐桌週轉率非常顯著（2023年下半年約爲4.2倍，2024年前5個月爲4.3倍，恢復率比2019年高出100%，而行業平均水平只有70%~80%），而在財年2022-2023年度中，這些先前關閉的門店中的50-100家已經重新開業。 2）我們認爲海底撈的競爭力（以人才爲例）在我看來不會受到太大的影響，因爲除了楊女士外，沒有其他高管將被轉移到超級嗨。此外，我們確實認爲新任首席執行官苟先生非常有能力。與楊女士類似，他也是張總和石總創業時的第一批員工之一。在長期任職海底撈期間，苟先生曾擔任CFO、IT部門負責人、供應鏈和採購負責人，以及數海公司的董事長。 3）除了業務穩步提高，近年來遠遠超越同行，1）新產品非常成功，它們是在品嚐會議上聽取高端會員的反饋後精製而成的，有些是更加本地化的；2）營銷在社交媒體上走紅，得益於分享各種“隱秘”的吃飯方法和“主體三”的舞蹈；3）與客戶的互動得到了增強，比如邀請黑卡會員參加海底撈門店經理大會和高端會員的新產品品嚐會。新店開設的潛力也增加了。例如，特許經營店即將投入使用，而校園店的表現也非常出色。更重要的是，《小嗨火鍋》（海底撈火鍋的大衆市場版本）得到了良好的評價。所有這些都可能成爲潛在加速擴張的基石。
1) The financial performance has been good and definitely not lower than expected. As mentioned in the announcement, both the Woodpecker Program/ 啄木鸟计划 in 2021 (closing around 300 stores and improving the operation of remaining stores, and not opening any new stores until the table turnover has returned to 4 times or more in principle) and the Ying Gu Tou Program/ 硬骨头计划 in 2022 (reopening some of the previously closed stores) have been successfully completed. The current table turnover is remarkable (around 4.2x in the second half of 2023 and 4.3x the first five months of 2024, recovery rate vs 2019 should be above 100%, compared to industry average of just 70% to 80%), while the 50 to 100 of those previously closed stores have been reopened in FY22-23.
中立
2) Haidilao's competitiveness (in terms of talent) will not be affected much in our view, because except for Ms. Yang, no other executives will be transferred to Super Hi. Besides, we do think the new CEO Mr. Gou is highly competent. Similar to Ms. Yang, he was also one of first employees when Mr. Zhang and Mr. Shi started the business. During his long tenure with Haidilao, Mr. Gou has worked as the CFO, head of IT department, head of supply chain and procurement, as well as the chairman of Shuhai.
海底撈的競爭力（以人才爲例）在我看來不會受到太大的影響，因爲除了楊女士外，沒有其他高管將被轉移到超級嗨。此外，我們確實認爲新任首席執行官苟先生非常有能力。與楊女士類似，他也是張總和石總創業時的第一批員工之一。在長期任職海底撈期間，苟先生曾擔任CFO、IT部門負責人、供應鏈和採購負責人，以及數海公司的董事長。
3) On top of the steady improvement in operation which made it outperform its peers by miles in recent years, 1) new products are highly successful, as they are refined after listening to feedback from top-tier members during the tasting sessions and some are more localized, 2) marketing has gone viral on social media, thanks to sharing of various "hidden" eating methods and the "Subject 3" dance, 3) the engagement with customers has been enhanced, such as inviting black card members to Haidilao store managers' conference and high-tier members to new product tasting sessions. The potential for new store openings has also increased. For instance, the franchising stores are going to be launched soon, while the performance of campus stores is outstanding. And more importantly, the Xiao Hai Huo Guo/ 小嗨火锅 (a mass- market version of Haidilao hot pot) has been well-received. All of these could be the building blocks of a potential speed-up in store expansion.
在業務的穩步提高中，近年來相距甚遠的同行業表現，1）新產品非常成功，因爲它們是在品嚐會議上聽取高端會員的反饋後精製而成的，有些是更加本地化的；2）營銷在社交媒體上走紅，得益於分享各種“隱秘”的吃飯方法和“主體三”的舞蹈；3）與客戶的互動得到了增強，比如邀請黑卡會員參加海底撈門店經理大會和高端會員的新產品品嚐會。新店開設的潛力也增加了。例如，特許經營店即將投入使用，而校園店的表現也非常出色。更重要的是，《小嗨火鍋》（海底撈火鍋的大衆市場版本）得到了良好的評價。所有這些都可能成爲潛在加速擴張的基石。
Maintain BUY with TP of HK$ 21.52, based on 20x FY24E P/E (unchanged). The stock is trading at 15x FY24E P/E and also has a 6% FY24E yield, which still looks somewhat attractive, for a more long-term investment perspective.
維持買入評級，目標價爲21.52港元，基於2024年市盈率（P/E）20倍（不變）。該股票的市盈率爲2024年15倍，而2024年預測收益率爲6%，從長期投資的角度來看，仍相對具有一定吸引力。
Even though there are only single-digit new stores YTD, the company is still very confident on achieving its FY24E target of single-digit % growth (around 50). However, as the store expansion pace is still slow in near term and the macro environment is fairly weak, we believe investors can continue to monitor and wait for the moment that store expansion acceleration occurs, where the valuation could be re-rated.
儘管今年迄今爲止只有個位數字的新店鋪，但公司對實現其2024年度單位數字增長（約爲50家）的目標仍充滿信心。然而，由於在短期內門店擴張的步伐仍然較慢，宏觀環境也相當疲軟，我們認爲投資者可以繼續監控並等待門店擴張加速的時刻到來，屆時估值可能會得到重估。
Moreover, we believe the move is positive for Super Hi, because Ms. Yang's expertise could be highly useful for Super Hi's future expansion. As stores have just started to achieve breakeven and generate positive cash flow, a store expansion acceleration has become much more possible.
此外，我們認爲這一舉措對超級嗨來說是積極的，因爲楊女士的專業知識可能對超級嗨未來的擴張非常有用。由於門店剛剛開始實現盈虧平衡併產生正現金流，店鋪擴張的加速已經變得更加可能。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。