Market's Higher Neutral Rate Expectations May Challenge Bond ETFs
Market's Higher Neutral Rate Expectations May Challenge Bond ETFs
This indicates the market is pricing in a much more elevated floor for yields, according to Bloomberg. This may limit bond performance, which might hamper investors' hopes for the kind of bond rally that saved them late last year.Markets are expecting the neutral rate — a theoretical rate that remains stable due to full employment and stable inflation — to stay higher than policymakers are forecasting. What does this mean for bond exchange-traded funds?
市場預計中立利率——由於充分就業和穩定的通貨膨脹而保持穩定的理論利率——將保持高於政策制定者的預測。這對於債券交易所交易基金意味着什麼？
A higher neutral rate may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, possibly causing headwinds for bonds, Bloomberg reports.
彭博社報導稱，較高的中立利率可能限制聯儲局降息的能力，可能給債券帶來阻力。
Forward contracts on the five-year interest rate in the next five years — a proxy for the market's view of where U.S. rates might land — have stagnated at 3.6%. That is down from last year's peak of 4.5%, but it's still more than one full percentage point higher than the average over the past decade and above the Fed's own estimate of 2.75%.
未來5年內第五年5年期利率的遠期合約——美國利率可能到達的市場預期的代理——已經停滯在3.6%。這比去年的4.5%峯值低，但仍比過去10年的平均水平高一個百分點以上，並高於聯儲局估計的2.75%。
This indicates the market is pricing in a much more elevated floor for yields, according to Bloomberg. This may limit bond performance, which might hamper investors' hopes for the kind of bond rally that saved them late last year.
這表明市場正在爲收益率的底部定價高得多，據彭博社稱。這可能限制債券表現，可能挫敗投資者對去年末拯救他們的那場債券反彈的希望。
Also read: US Economy 'In State Of Unstable Equilibrium,' Study Finds
還可以閱讀: 研究發現美國經濟處於不穩定平衡狀態。
Investor sentiment is rising steadily, but a Bloomberg gauge of Treasury returns was down just 0.3% in 2024 as of Friday, after shedding 3.4% for the year at its low point. Benchmark yields are down about half a percentage point from their year-to-date peak in April, Bloomberg reported.
投資者情緒正在穩步上升，但彭博社對國庫收益率的衡量指標在截至上週五時僅下降了0.3%。它在今年低點時下跌了3.4%。基準收益率比4月份的年初高點下降了大約半個百分點，據彭博社報道。
The true level of the neutral rate, also known as R-Star, may take an upward trend that would reverse a decades-long downward drift on expectations for large and protracted government budget deficits and increased spending on battling climate change.
中立利率的實際水平，也稱爲R-Star，可能會呈上升趨勢，這將扭轉對政府預算赤字大規模持續和長期打擊氣候變化的預期的幾十年的下降趨勢。
Further gains in bonds may require a more pronounced slowdown in inflation and growth to prompt interest rate cuts more quickly and deeply than the Fed currently envisions. A higher neutral rate would make this scenario less likely, according to Bloomberg.
債券進一步增長可能需要更加明顯的通脹和增長放緩，以促使利率削減得比聯儲局目前預計的更快更深。據彭博社報道，較高的中立利率將使這種情況變得不太可能。
Economists expect data next week to show that the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation slowed to an annualized rate 2.6% last month from 2.8%.
經濟學家們預計，下週的數據將顯示，上個月聯儲局首選的潛在通脹指標年率爲2.6%，低於2.8%。
That is the lowest reading since March 2021, but it still exceeds the Fed's goal for 2% inflation. And the unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for more than two years, the best performance since the 1960s.
這是自20世紀60年代以來失業率在4%以下的時間已經超過兩年的最佳表現。
Price action: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG) was up 0.01%, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (NASDAQ:BND) was down 0.04% and the Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (NASDAQ:BNDX) slipped 0.12% at the time of publication Monday.
價格走勢：截至週一發佈時，iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF（NYSE：AGG）上漲0.01%，Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund（NASDAQ：BND）下跌0.04%，Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund（NASDAQ：BNDX）下跌0.12%。
Investor Optimism Tested: Navigating 2024 Bond Market's Uncertain Terrain
投資者的樂觀情緒經受考驗：航行2024年債券市場的不確定地帶。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
