KUAISHOU(1024.HK):SHELF-BASED ECOMMERCE OUTPERFORMED IN 618
KUAISHOU(1024.HK):SHELF-BASED ECOMMERCE OUTPERFORMED IN 618
During the 618 promotion of 2024, Kuaishou emphasized more on good products at low price, with simpler approach and extended period. Pan shelf-based ecommerce performed well, with orders/paying users +65%/57% YoY. We estimate its GMV share from pan shelf-based ecommerce to be >25%, and 2Q24E ecommerce growth would be intact (forecasting GMV/other services revenue +25%/24% YoY). Despite mixed third party industrial data, we are positive on Kuaishou's share gain in 618, and expect ecommerce upside from rising MAC and shelf-based mall penetration. On top of that, we are confident on KS's earnings upside, with continuous margin improvement. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP at HK$97.
在2024年的618促銷期間，快手更加強調價格優惠的好產品和簡單的方式，推遲了促銷時間。在貨架電商領域，盤根據地電商表現良好，訂單/付費用戶同比增長65%/57%。我們估計在盤根據地電商中的GMV份額超過25%，在第二季度預計電商增長將保持不變（預計GMV/其他服務收入同比增長25%/24%）。儘管第三方行業數據混雜，我們對快手在618年份額上升持積極看法，並預計隨着MAC的上升和貨架商場的滲透率上升，電商將迎來上行。除此之外，我們對KS的業績上行持有信心，並繼續維持買入評級，HK$97。
Solid growth in 618, despite mixed industrial data. Kuaishou released its 618 promotions performance, with pan shelf-based ecommerce orders/paying users +65%/57% YoY, search payment orders/users +55%/58% YoY, and SFV-based GMV +66% YoY during 618 (20 May- 18 Jun). Meanwhile, active merchants grew 26% YoY, in which SME merchants +28% YoY. By category, consumer electronics & furniture GMV surged over 83% YoY, in which brand pan shelf-based GMV increased by over 177% YoY. Mobile phone segment increased by over 129% YoY. During 618, Kuaishou emphasized more on good products at low price, with simpler approach and extended period. However, third party data from Syntun and Analysys suggested mixed industrial GMV trend during 618. According to Syntun data, livestreaming ecommerce GMV slowed down to 12% YoY (vs. 28% in 2023), while industry GMV -7% YoY (vs. +15% in 2023). Kuaishou GMV was estimated at +16% YoY (vs. Douyin +26%; key platforms +14% on average), based on Analysys data. We view such moderate momentum was mainly due to discount & subsidies normalization in daily operation. We are positive on Kuaishou's ecommerce performance in 2Q24E (forecasting GMV/other services revenue +25%/24% YoY), backed by rich offerings, rising MAC and shelf-based mall penetration.
儘管第三方行業數據有所混淆，618年的增長相當穩健。快手發佈了其618促銷的表現，貨架電商的訂單/付費用戶同比增長65%/57%，搜索支付的訂單/付費用戶同比增長55%/58%，在618（5月20日-6月18日）期間，基於SFV的GMV同比增長66%。同時，活躍商家同比增加了26%，其中中小型商家同比增長28%。按類別分，消費電子和傢俱的GMV同比增長超過83%，其中品牌貨架電商的GMV同比增長超過177%。手機單品同比增長超過129%。在618期間，快手更加強調價格優惠的好產品和簡單的方式，推遲了促銷時間。但是，Syntun和Analysys的第三方數據顯示，在618期間的工業GMV趨勢混淆不一。根據Syntun的數據，直播電商的GMV同比增長放緩至12%（相對於2023年的28%），而行業的GMV則同比下降7%（相對於2023年的+15%）。根據Analysys的數據，基於Kuaishou的估計GMV同比增長16%（相對於抖音的26%和平均關鍵平台的14%）。我們認爲這種適度的增長勢頭主要是由於日常運營中的折扣和補貼規範化。我們對Kuaishou在第二季度的電商業績保持樂觀（預計GMV/其他服務收入同比增長25%/24%）。
AIGC on good progress, with video generation model "Kling" launched. Kuaishou unveiled its self-developed video generation model, Kling, in Jun. Utilizing DiT, Kling can generate complex spatiotemporal motions and simulate the characteristics of the physical world, and transform text prompts into high-quality AI videos of up to two minutes. It is available for beta testing within "KuaiYing (快影)".
AIGC取得了良好的進展，推出了視頻生成模型“Kling”。快手在六月份推出了自主開發的視頻生成模型Kling。利用DiT，Kling可以生成複雜的時空運動，並模擬物理世界的特徵，將文本提示轉換爲長達兩分鐘的高質量AI視頻。它已經在“快影”中進行了內部測試。
Maintain BUY. We keep our financials forecast unchanged, with SOTP- based TP at HK$97. Upcoming quarterly results would be the short-term catalysts, and we are bullish on its margin upside ahead.
維持買入評級。我們維持不變的財務預測和以SOTP爲基礎的HK$97的目標價格。即將發佈的季度業績將是短期推動力，我們對其邊際上行持積極看法。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。