Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Targa Resources fair value estimate is US$121
With US$123 share price, Targa Resources appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
Our fair value estimate is 5.2% lower than Targa Resources' analyst price target of US$128
How far off is Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE:TRGP) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$504.5m
US$1.75b
US$1.70b
US$2.05b
US$2.04b
US$2.04b
US$2.06b
US$2.08b
US$2.12b
US$2.16b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x8
Analyst x9
Analyst x6
Analyst x4
Analyst x2
Est @ 0.16%
Est @ 0.83%
Est @ 1.29%
Est @ 1.62%
Est @ 1.85%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%
US$464
US$1.5k
US$1.3k
US$1.5k
US$1.3k
US$1.2k
US$1.2k
US$1.1k
US$1.0k
US$940
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$11b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$35b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10= US$15b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$27b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$123, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:TRGP Discounted Cash Flow June 20th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Targa Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.364. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Targa Resources
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Balance sheet summary for TRGP.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
See TRGP's dividend history.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Targa Resources, we've compiled three fundamental items you should further research:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Targa Resources .
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for TRGP's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
