US Treasuries Set To Break Even After Rocky First Half Of 2024
US Treasuries Set To Break Even After Rocky First Half Of 2024
U.S. Treasuries are poised to come in even despite having a very volatile first six months of 2024.
儘管2024年上半年非常波動，但美國國債仍有望收縮。
A Bloomberg index of returns in this bond market has declined a mere 0.1% for the year. It fell as much as 3.4% in April.
彭博債券市場回報指數今年僅下降了0.1％。 4月份下跌了最多3.4％。
The rebound indicates that investor outlook might be positive in light of falling U.S. prices prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner.
反彈表明，鑑於美國價格下跌促使聯邦儲備委員會盡快降息，投資者的展望可能是積極的。
"We've seen the peak in yields," Stephen Miller, investment strategist at GSFM in Sydney, told Bloomberg. "Bonds are now back as having a deserved place in a multi-asset portfolio."
"我們已看到收益率峯值，"悉尼GSFM的投資策略師Stephen Miller告訴彭博社。 "債券現在回到了在多資產組合中應該擁有的位置。"
Treasuries have been sent in opposite directions in 2024 as policy-sensitive two-year yields have soared above 5% in April as fears over higher-for-longer U.S. rates spurred investors to dump bonds.
隨着擔心美國的高利率引發投資者拋售債券，政策敏感的兩年期收益率在2024年中被推高至5％以上，從而導致國債朝相反方向發展。
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They have since returned to around 4.7% as inflation-to-retail-sales data suggested the U.S. economy may finally be cooling enough to justify lower borrowing costs.
隨着通脹對零售銷售數據的影響，美國經濟可能終於達到了降低借貸成本的程度，因此二年期國債收益率已回升至約4.7％。
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday that it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to reduce rates "sometime later this year" if economic conditions unfold as anticipated.
聯儲局理事Adriana Kugler週二表示，如果經濟狀況如預期一樣發展，央行很可能在"今年晚些時候"降息。
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in his first major policy speech that it could take "quarters" for the data to support a cut.
聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行主席Alberto Musalem在他的第一次主要政策演講中表示，數據支持降息可能需要"幾季度"時間。
Volatility in the $27 trillion Treasury market has fallen from recent highs as the views of the Fed and investors over the number of rate cuts expected this year have begun to gel.
$27萬億國債市場的波動性已從最近的高點下降，因爲聯儲局和投資者對今年將會有多少利率削減的看法開始融合。
The ICE BofA MOVE Index — a gauge of bond volatility that tracks anticipated swings in US yields based on options — is hovering at about 98, down from an April high of 121, Bloomberg reported.
彭博社報道，追蹤基於期權預測的美國收益率預期波動的ICE BofA MOVE指數目前約爲98，距離4月份的高點121下降。
Price Action: SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:BIL) remained flat before Thursday's opening bell, while iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) declined 0.4%; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) fell 1% in pre-market trading on Thursday.
價格走勢：SPDR彭博1-3個月國庫券ETF（NYSE：BIL）週四開盤前保持不變，而美國國債7-10年ETF-iShares（NASDAQ：IEF）下降0.4％； iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（納斯達克：TLT）在週四的美股盤前交易中下跌了1％。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。