Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger
Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
如果您不確定下一個多倍股從哪裏開始找，那麼有幾個關鍵趨勢您應該密切關注。首先，我們想確定一個不斷增長的資產板塊。這表明它是一個複合機器，能夠不斷地將其盈利再投入業務併產生更高的回報。但是，我們簡要查看數字後，不認爲鄧白氏控股（NYSE:DNB）有多倍股的發展前景，但是讓我們來看看可能的原因。資產回報率：它是什麼？資本僱用回報率 (ROCE) 是一種早期趨勢，可以用來識別有可能在長期內翻倍增值的股票，然後在此基礎上，要尋找一個不斷增長的業務板塊和行業板塊。這告訴我們這是一臺複利機器，能夠不斷地將其收益再投入業務，從而產生更高的回報。因此，在這點上，Materialise (納斯達克:MTLS) 看起來相當有前途，因爲它在資本回報方面的趨勢相當不錯。資產回報率 = 利息和所得稅前收益（EBIT）÷（總資產-流動負債）這顯示它是一個複合機器，能夠不斷地將其收益重新投資到業務中，並生成更高的回報。然而，在調查聯合太平洋（紐交所：UNP）後，我們不認爲它的當前趨勢符合倍增機制。
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
上面您可以看到蒙托克可再生能源現行ROCE與之前資本回報的比較，但過去只能知道這麼多。如果您感興趣，可以查看我們免費的蒙托克可再生能源分析師報告，了解分析師的預測。
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on Union Pacific is:
只是爲了澄清，如果您不確定，ROCE是評估公司在其業務中投資的資本上賺取多少稅前收入（以百分比爲單位）的指標。在聯合太平洋的計算中，這個計算公式是:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
資產僱用回報率（ROCE）是指企業利潤，即企業稅前利潤除以企業投入的總資本（負債加股權）。如果ROCE高於企業財務成本的承受能力，那麼企業就會創造出更多的價值。
0.15 = US$9.2b ÷ (US$67b - US$4.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
0.15 = 92億美元 / （670億美元 - 45億美元）在Elevance Health上，我們已經注意到的趨勢是相當令人放心的。數據顯示，過去五年資產回報率大幅提高至15％。投資所用資產的規模也增加了30％。這表明有很多機會進行內部資本投資，並以更高的速度不斷增長，這種組合在多倍增長方面很常見。.
Thus, Union Pacific has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Transportation industry average of 7.1% it's much better.
因此，聯合太平洋的ROCE爲15%。 從絕對價值來看，這是一個令人滿意的回報，但與運輸行業的平均水平7.1％相比，它要好得多。
In the above chart we have measured Union Pacific's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Union Pacific for free.
在上面的圖表中，我們測量了聯合太平洋以往的ROCE與其以往的表現，但未來可能更爲重要。如果您願意，您可以免費查看分析師對聯合太平洋的預測。
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
儘管如此，當我們看 enphase energy (納斯達克股票代碼：ENPH) 的時候，它似乎並沒有完全符合這些要求。
Over the past five years, Union Pacific's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So don't be surprised if Union Pacific doesn't end up being a multi-bagger in a few years time. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Union Pacific has been paying out a decent 42% of its earnings to shareholders. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.
過去五年來，聯合太平洋的ROCE和資本承包金額都保持基本穩定。當查看一個成熟且穩定的業務，並且它不再將其收益再投入時，這種情況並不罕見，因爲它可能已經經過了此業務週期的階段。因此，如果聯合太平洋未來幾年內無法成爲倍增機制，也不要感到驚訝。由於投資機會較少，所以聯合太平洋支付了相當可觀的42％收益給股東。除非業務具有高度吸引力的增長機會，否則它們通常會向股東返還一些資金。
The Bottom Line
還有一件事需要注意的是，我們已經確定了上海醫藥的2個警告信號，了解這些信號應該成爲你的投資過程的一部分。
In summary, Union Pacific isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Since the stock has gained an impressive 50% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.
總之，聯合太平洋沒有複合其收益，但它在同樣數量的資本承包金額上產生了穩定的回報。由於該股票在過去五年中漲幅達到驚人的50％，因此投資者必須認爲未來將會有更好的表現。然而，除非這些基本趨勢更加積極，否則我們不應過於樂觀。
Union Pacific does have some risks though, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Union Pacific that you might be interested in.
然而，聯合太平洋確實存在一些風險，我們已經發現了一則關於聯合太平洋的警告信號，您可能會感興趣。
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
如果您想尋找財務狀況良好、回報卓越的實力強企業，可以免費查看以下公司列表。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。