SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):2024 INVESTOR DAY TAKEAW
SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):2024 INVESTOR DAY TAKEAW
2024 Investor Day takeaways
2024年投資者日要點
Sunny Optical held its annual investor day on 18 June, which mainly focuses on technology and market trend. Company does not upgrade its guidance as some have speculated but it did slightly revise up 2024 global smartphone outlook. Key takeaways from the meetings include fast growth in hybrid smartphone lens, periscope, ultra-thin HCM for foldable, hybrid ADAS vehicle lens, LiDAR, AR HUD, headlamp and vehicle camera module as well as flexing its exposure in AI smartphone. Given Android's strong YTD growth and Company's YTD shipment beat, we expect 1H24 margins to recover meaningfully. In the following quarters, we also expect Company may continue re-rate driven by AI hardware momentum such as AI iPhone and AI AR glass. We maintain BUY rating on Sunny Optical and increase our TP from HK$61 to HK$69 based on 24x 2025E EPS.
舜宇光學於6月18日舉行了其年度投資者日，主要聚焦於科技和市場趨勢。公司未升級其指引，但確實稍微修訂了2024年全球智能手機前景。會議的重點包括混合式智能手機鏡頭、千斤頂、超薄可摺疊屏幕HCM、混合ADAS汽車鏡頭、LiDAR、AR HUD、車燈和車載攝像頭模組的快速增長，以及在AI智能手機領域擴展其業務。鑑於Android今年迄今爲止的強勁增長和公司今年迄今爲止的出貨數據表現優異，我們預計1H24的利潤率將有顯著恢復。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們也預計公司可能會繼續受到AI硬件勢頭的推動而獲得重估，例如AI iPhone和AI AR玻璃等。我們保持對舜宇光學的買入評級，並將我們的目標價從HK$61升至HK$69，基於24倍2025年的每股收益。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Smartphone: Mgmt. revised up 2024 global smartphone shipment forecast and is positive on the foldable phone sales increase in 2024. Mgmt. believes AI smartphone will trigger the popularity and miniaturisation of auxiliary camera while camera shipment momentum might happen after 2025. The mgmt. also sees 3D camera a revived trend for smartphone. Increasing market share of US client and high-spec project for Korean client will be a key target to achieve in the following years. Mgmt. is positive on margin improvement thanks to spec- upgrade in 2024 and 2025.
智能手機:管理層修訂了2024年全球智能手機出貨預測，並對2024年摺疊電話銷售增加持樂觀態度。管理層認爲AI智能手機將引發輔助攝像機的普及和微型化，而攝像機出貨勢頭可能發生在2025年之後。管理層還認爲3D攝像頭是智能手機的一種復甦趨勢。美國客戶的市場份額增加和韓國客戶的高規格項目將是未來幾年實現的關鍵目標。管理層對於通過2024年和2025年的規格升級實現利潤率提高持肯定態度。
Automotive: 80% of Global EV brands use Company's HLS in 2023. Mgmt. has more than 15 LiDAR projects to commence mass production in 2024-2025. The mgmt. also guides its global market share of AR-HUD PGU will increase from 3% in 2023 to 6% in 2024; global market share of headlamp will increase from 1% in 2023 to 18% in 2024. Although EV price war in China is a pressure, mgmt. believes differentiation, cost control and product improvement can offset.
汽車:2023年全球80%的電動車品牌將使用舜宇光學的HLS。管理層有15多個激光雷達項目將於2024年至2025年開始批量生產。管理層還指導其AR-HUD PGU的全球市場份額將從2023年的3%升至2024年的6%；車燈的全球市場份額將從2023年的1%升至2024年的18%。雖然中國的電動汽車價格戰是一種壓力，但管理層認爲差異化、成本控制和產品改進可以抵消這種壓力。
AI, Robot, XR: 1) AI: Sunny Optical has rich product offerings related to Rx and Tx hardware. 2) Robot: Robot will need vision and Sunny Optical is a vision company. Cameras will account for 2.5-5% of the content value in robots, with additional contributions from sensors. 3) XR: Sunny Optical has business exposures in Meta AR/VR glasses, covering all the key optical components.
人工智能、機器人、XR：1）人工智能：舜宇光學具有與Rx和Tx硬件相關的豐富產品。2）機器人：機器人將需要視覺，舜宇光學是一家視覺公司。攝像機將佔機器人內容價值的2.5-5%，傳感器還將作出額外的貢獻。3）XR：舜宇光學在Meta AR/VR眼鏡的業務曝光中涵蓋了所有關鍵的光學元件。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
1) Demand miss for high spec smartphone; 2) slower-than-expected market share gain; 3) new price war initiated by peers; and 4) negative macro.
1）高規格智能手機的需求不足；2）市場份額獲得的增長低於預期；3）同行發起的新價格戰；4）宏觀環境不利。
Valuation
估值
We increase our 2024/25 EPS forecasts by 6%/6% to factor in strong YTD shipment in HLS and HCM and better operating leverage. We use 24x 2025E EPS (was 30x 2024E EPS), or -1.5sd below three-year average to value Sunny Optical. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of HK$69 (was HK$61).
我們將2024/25年的每股收益預測上調6%/6%，以考慮HLS和HCM的強勁年初至今的出貨量和更好的運營槓桿。我們採用24倍2025年的每股收益（曾是30倍2024年的每股收益），或低於三年平均值1.5個標準差進行估值。我們維持買入評級，將我們的目標價從HK$61升至HK$69。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。