The Returns At Vistra (NYSE:VST) Aren't Growing
The Returns At Vistra (NYSE:VST) Aren't Growing
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Vistra (NYSE:VST) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
如果你在尋找開空股票，就要注意幾個方面。首先，我們要看到資本的增長。這表明企業正在以越來越高的回報率對利潤進行再投資。從這個角度來看，我們注意到阜豐集團（HKG：546）有一些令人期待的趨勢，那麼讓我們再深入一些。資產回報率：它是什麼？資本僱用回報率 (ROCE) 是一種早期趨勢，可以用來識別有可能在長期內翻倍增值的股票，然後在此基礎上，要尋找一個不斷增長的業務板塊和行業板塊。這告訴我們這是一臺複利機器，能夠不斷地將其收益再投入業務，從而產生更高的回報。因此，在這點上，Materialise (納斯達克:MTLS) 看起來相當有前途，因爲它在資本回報方面的趨勢相當不錯。資產回報率 = 利息和所得稅前收益（EBIT）÷（總資產-流動負債）簡單地說，這些類型的業務是複合機器，意味着它們在不斷地以更高的回報率重新投資其收益。然而，經過簡短的數字分析，我們認爲維斯特拉（NYSE：VST）未來沒有成爲多掌機的可能性，但讓我們看看爲什麼會這樣。
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
上面您可以看到蒙托克可再生能源現行ROCE與之前資本回報的比較，但過去只能知道這麼多。如果您感興趣，可以查看我們免費的蒙托克可再生能源分析師報告，了解分析師的預測。
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Vistra:
如果您之前沒有接觸過ROCE，它衡量公司從在業務中投入的資本中生成的“回報”（稅前利潤）。分析師使用此公式計算維斯特拉的ROCE：
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
資產僱用回報率（ROCE）是指企業利潤，即企業稅前利潤除以企業投入的總資本（負債加股權）。如果ROCE高於企業財務成本的承受能力，那麼企業就會創造出更多的價值。
0.055 = US$1.6b ÷ (US$38b - US$8.8b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
0.055 = 16億美元 ÷ （380億美元 - 88億美元）在Elevance Health上，我們已經注意到的趨勢是相當令人放心的。數據顯示，過去五年資產回報率大幅提高至15％。投資所用資產的規模也增加了30％。這表明有很多機會進行內部資本投資，並以更高的速度不斷增長，這種組合在多倍增長方面很常見。.
So, Vistra has an ROCE of 5.5%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 5.5%, it's still a low return by itself.
因此，維斯特拉的ROCE爲5.5％。即使它與行業平均水平5.5％保持一致，仍然是較低的回報。
In the above chart we have measured Vistra's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Vistra .
在上圖中，我們已經測量了維斯特拉以前的ROCE與其以前的表現，但未來可能更重要。如果您想查看分析師預測的前景，請查看我們爲維斯特拉提供的免費分析師報告。
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
儘管如此，當我們看 enphase energy (納斯達克股票代碼：ENPH) 的時候，它似乎並沒有完全符合這些要求。
In terms of Vistra's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 5.5% and the business has deployed 32% more capital into its operations. Given the company has increased the amount of capital employed, it appears the investments that have been made simply don't provide a high return on capital.
就維斯特拉的歷史ROCE趨勢而言，它並沒有引起注意。在過去的五年中，ROCE保持在大約5.5％左右，業務運營中投入的資本增加了32％。由於公司已經增加了投入的資本額，似乎所作的投資並沒有爲資本提供高回報。
Another point to note, we noticed the company has increased current liabilities over the last five years. This is intriguing because if current liabilities hadn't increased to 23% of total assets, this reported ROCE would probably be less than5.5% because total capital employed would be higher.The 5.5% ROCE could be even lower if current liabilities weren't 23% of total assets, because the the formula would show a larger base of total capital employed. So while current liabilities isn't high right now, keep an eye out in case it increases further, because this can introduce some elements of risk.
另一個要注意的地方是，我們注意到公司在過去的五年中增加了流動負債。這是有趣的，因爲如果當前負債未增加至總資產的23％，則報告的ROCE可能低於5.5％，因爲總投入的資本會更高。如果當前負債不高，那麼請注意，以防它進一步增加，因爲這可能引入一些風險元素。
The Bottom Line
還有一件事需要注意的是，我們已經確定了上海醫藥的2個警告信號，了解這些信號應該成爲你的投資過程的一部分。
In conclusion, Vistra has been investing more capital into the business, but returns on that capital haven't increased. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 303% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.
總之，維斯特拉一直在向業務投入更多資本，但投入的資本回報率並沒有增加。投資者必須認爲還有更好的事情即將到來，因爲該股票已經取得了成就，給持有超過五年的股東帶來了303％的收益。但是，除非這些潛在的趨勢變得更加積極，否則我們不會對此抱有太高的期望。
One more thing to note, we've identified 1 warning sign with Vistra and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
還有一件事情要注意，我們已經確定了維斯特拉存在一個警告信號，並且了解它應該是您投資過程的一部分。
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
Hao Tian International Construction Investment Group確實存在一些風險，我們已經發現了一條警示標誌，你可能會感興趣。對於那些喜歡投資於實力雄厚的公司的人，可以查看這個由財務狀況強大、股本回報率高的公司組成的免費列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。