Does Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
作爲一名投資者，有人認爲波動性而不是債務是風險最好的衡量方式，但是禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過“波動性和風險遠非同義詞”。因此，理智的投資者知道，債務（通常與破產有關）是評估公司風險的重要因素之一。我們注意到美國鋁業公司（NYSE: AA）確實在其資產負債表上有債務。但是股東們是否應該擔心它使用債務的情況呢？
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險？
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務可以在企業有新資本或自由現金流來補充時對企業起到幫助作用。最糟糕的情況是，如果企業無法償付債權人，公司可能會破產。但是，更常見的情況是公司必須以低價發行股票，永久性地稀釋股東的利益，以此來穩定自身的資產負債表，雖然代價高昂。話雖如此，在一般情況下，公司合理地管理債務則是一個更加普遍的情況，爲自己的利益所用。當我們檢查債務水平時，我們首先考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Alcoa's Debt?
美國鋁業公司的債務情況如何？
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Alcoa had debt of US$2.60b, up from US$1.83b in one year. However, it also had US$1.36b in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.24b.
下圖（可點擊查看更多詳情）顯示，到2024年3月，美國鋁業公司的債務總額爲26億美元，而一年前的債務總額爲18.3億美元。但是，它也有13.6億美元的現金，因此其淨債務爲12.4億美元。
A Look At Alcoa's Liabilities
看看美國鋁業公司的負債情況
The latest balance sheet data shows that Alcoa had liabilities of US$3.04b due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.75b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.36b in cash and US$1.00b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$6.44b.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示，美國鋁業公司的短期負債爲30.4億美元，在一年內到期，而超過這個期限的負債爲57.5億美元。但是，它有13.6億美元的現金和10億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此，它的負債高於其現金和（短期）應收賬款的總和644億美元。相對於其市值爲69.2億美元，這是一座負債的山。如果其債權人要求其穩固資產負債表，股東可能會面臨嚴重稀釋。毫無疑問，我們從資產負債表中了解到的最多的就是其債務情況。但最終能否保持健康的資產負債表主要取決於未來的利潤。因此，如果您關注未來，可以查看此免費報告，其中顯示分析師的利潤預測。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$6.92b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Alcoa's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
在過去的12個月中，美國鋁業公司在息稅前利潤（EBIT）水平上虧損，並且其營業收入下降到了100億美元，下降11％。我們非常希望看到創業板。儘管美國鋁業公司營業收入下降不太樂觀，但是其EBIT虧損的情況甚至更不理想。具體來說，EBIT虧損達到7600萬美元。考慮到上述負債情況，我們並不認爲該公司應該使用這麼多債務，並且認爲其資產負債表遠未達到完美狀態，但是時間可以改善這種情況。在這種情況下，另一個引起警惕的因素是上述公司在過去的12個月中出現了超過5.18億美元的負面自由現金流。因此，我們認爲該股票非常有風險。對於像美國鋁業公司這樣風險更高的公司，我總是喜歡監視內部人員是在購買還是出售。如果您想查看，請單擊此處。
Over 12 months, Alcoa made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$10b, which is a fall of 11%. We would much prefer see growth.
過去12個月，美國鋁業公司EBIT虧損並且營業收入下降到100億美元，下降了11％。我們非常希望看到創業板。
Caveat Emptor
買方自負。
While Alcoa's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at US$76m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled US$518m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. For riskier companies like Alcoa I always like to keep an eye on whether insiders are buying or selling. So click here if you want to find out for yourself.
儘管美國鋁業公司營業收入下降，但其EBIT虧損的情況更不樂觀。具體來說，EBIT虧損達7600萬美元。考慮上述負債情況，我們並不認爲公司應該使用這麼多債務，並且認爲其資產負債表仍需完善，還需要一定的時間。另一個值得警惕的問題是過去12個月該公司產生了5.18億美元的負面自由現金流。因此，我們認爲該股票的風險非常大。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
說到底，有時更容易關注那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費查看零淨債務增長股票列表，立即獲得。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。