US$145 - That's What Analysts Think Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) Is Worth After These Results
US$145 - That's What Analysts Think Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) Is Worth After These Results
Shareholders of Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$140 following its latest yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$53b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.0% to hit US$3.71 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
本週甲骨文公司（紐交所：ORCL）的股東將會感到高興，因爲其股價上漲了13％，至140美元，在最新的年度業績中表現出色。儘管53億美元的營業收入與分析師預測相符，但法定盈利未達預期，每股收益爲3.71美元，低於估計的2.0％。分析師更新了公司收益模型，值得關注的是他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化，還是照常經營。考慮到這一點，我們收集了最新的法定預測，以了解分析師對明年的預期。
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Oracle's 29 analysts is for revenues of US$57.9b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 9.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 16% to US$4.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$57.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.45 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
考慮到最新情況，甲骨文公司的29位分析師當前的共識是，2025年將有579億美元的收入，這將反映出過去12個月以來其收入的穩健增長。預計每股收益將躍升16％，至4.41美元。然而，在最新業績發佈之前，分析師預計2025年營業額將爲578億美元，每股收益爲4.45美元。因此，儘管分析師已經更新了他們的估計，但公司的預期並沒有發生重大變化。
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.6% to US$145. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Oracle, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$175 and the most bearish at US$98.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
鑑於分析師已經重申了他們的收益和營收預測，令人驚訝的是，目標股價上漲了5.6％至145美元。看起來他們先前對公司是否能夠達到其預期存在一些疑慮。同時，查看分析師估計的範圍也可能具有啓發性，以評估離群型意見與平均值的差異。對於甲骨文公司有一些不同的看法，最看好的分析師認爲其價值爲每股175美元，而最保守的則爲每股98美元。這表明在估計方面仍存在一些多樣性，但分析師似乎並不完全對這隻股票持有完全不同的意見。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Oracle's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Oracle is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
我們可以將這些預測視爲更大的背景下的預測，例如預測如何與過去的業績相比，以及相對於行業其他公司來說，預測是更加看漲還是看跌。分析師明顯預計甲骨文公司的增長將加速，預測到2025年年化增長率將達到9.3％，這比過去五年的年化增長率6.9％要好。相比之下，我們的數據表明，在類似行業中其他受到分析師關注的公司預計將實現每年12％的收入增長。因此，儘管增長加速，但甲骨文公司預計的增長速度仍慢於行業平均水平。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是，營收預測未發生重大變化，業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元，最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
最明顯的結論是，在最近的時期內，公司的前景沒有發生重大變化，分析師持續維持其收益預測與先前的估計相符。正面的是，營收估計沒有發生重大變化;儘管預測表明其表現將不如整個行業。同時，股價目標有了不錯的增長，分析師明顯認爲公司的內在價值正在提高。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Oracle. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Oracle going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點，我們不應該太快得出關於甲骨文公司的結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更重要。我們對甲骨文公司的預測延伸到2027年，您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Oracle that you should be aware of.
然而，在您開始感到興奮之前，我們已經發現了1個甲骨文公司的警告信號，您應該意識到。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者，發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋？關於內容有所顧慮？直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。