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《市評》恒指向下失萬八關 周大福績後下挫

The Hang Seng Index fell below ten thousand and eight due to the downturn of Chow Tai Fook's performance, according to the City Review.

AASTOCKS ·  Jun 14 17:13

The Hang Seng Index was struggling around the 18,000 level today. The US May final demand for goods PSPI fell 0.2% month-on-month. The Dow and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and rose 0.3% respectively in the evening. At the time of writing, the yield on the US 10-year bond was at 4.231 basis points. The US dollar index rose to 105.61, and the Dow futures fell 196 points or 0.51%, while the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3 points or 0.12% throughout the day, closing at 3,032 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%. The total turnover of the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded RMB 848.1 billion. The People's Bank of China announced after the market close that M2 balance at the end of May rose 7% year-on-year. China's new RMB loans in the first five months were RMB 11.14 trillion, compared with the market expectation of RMB 11.31 trillion.

The Hang Seng Index opened down 84 points this morning and fell as much as 185 points to a low of 17,927 points in the initial stage. It then narrowed to a low of 18,109 points, then struggled around the 18,000 level, and fell 170 points or 0.9% throughout the day to close at 17,941 points. The State Council fell 47 points or 0.7% to close at 6,374 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 31 points or 0.8% to close at 3,707 points. The total turnover of the market was HKD 116.224 billion, with a net inflow of RMB 4.313 billion and HKD 3.727 billion through the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Stellantis said it would produce some Zero Model (09863.HK) electric vehicles under the Lynk & Co brand in Europe to cope with EU tariffs. Zero soared 8.9% throughout the day.

The Hang Seng Index fell 425 points or 2.3% this week, the State Council fell 135 points or 2.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 64 points or 1.7%. The Federal Reserve earlier announced that it would keep the federal funds rate in the range of 5.25 to 5.5 basis points, marking the seventh consecutive time to stop raising interest rates, in line with market expectations. The median interest rate forecast shows that the US will cut interest rates by 25 points this year, a significant reduction from the earlier expected 75 points, meaning that interest rates are expected to be cut only once this year.

Breaking the 18,000 mark, Alibaba's stock price dropped.

In terms of internet stocks, Alibaba (09988.HK) fell 2.3% throughout the day, closing at HKD 72.8. Tencent (00700.HK) remained unchanged at HKD 379.8, and Meituan (03690.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) fell 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Daiwa released a research report indicating that American investors generally bullish on Tencent, giving mostly "buy" or "shareholding" ratings, and looking forward to more catalysts to push up its stock price, such as improving gaming business performance, strong growth in advertising business, and continuous shareholder returns.

The bank also pointed out that investors are bullish on Pinduoduo (PDD.US), giving it a "buy" rating, and also considering Ctrip (09961.HK) (TCOM.US), KE Holdings (02423.HK) (BEKE.US) and Meituan (03690.HK). Daiwa pointed out that Ctrip's international business development seems to be unappreciated by investors, and the bank expects the business to bring long-term sustainable growth to the company. As for Netease (09999.HK) (NTES.US), which the bank is bullish on, it is not as popular as other stocks.

As the market weakened, Chow Tai Fook plunged.

The Hong Kong stock market was weak today, with a ratio of 21 to 21 in the rise and fall of main board stocks (24 to 17 yesterday), and 21 constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index rose and 58 fell throughout the day. The rise and fall ratio was 26 to 71 (73 to 23 yesterday). The market recorded a short sale of HKD 100 million today, accounting for % of the turnover of tradable shares (%, the same as yesterday).

Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) fell nearly 9% throughout the day to close at HKD 8.62. Bank of America Securities released a research report stating that Chow Tai Fook's core operating surplus in the 2024 fiscal year reached HKD 12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%, which was 8% higher than the bank's forecast. The income increased by 15% year-on-year, which also exceeded expectations by 2%, mainly due to the higher than expected wholesale business income in China during the period.

Bank of America Securities pointed out that the rise in gold prices during the period and the optimization of the pricing strategy by the group had a positive impact on the overall profit margin. However, this was largely offset by the higher proportion of gold sales. At the same time, due to the rise in gold prices, Chow Tai Fook also recorded a unrealized loss of about 2.5 billion yuan in gold loans at the end of the period. Bank of America stated that Chow Tai Fook's annual dividend payout was 0.55 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 85%. It did not announce any special dividend, which was disappointing. They lowered the target price from 12.1 yuan to 10.9 yuan to reflect a more cautious dividend payout and the risk of declining profitability, and reaffirmed their "neutral" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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