Key points of investment:
The company was founded in 2002 and has a deep accumulation in the field of new energy garden tools. According to the company's prospectus, Glebe was founded in 2002. The AC garden tools it produces entered CTC in 2005, then founded its own brand Greenworks in 2009. Since then, it has been developing new energy (lithium battery) garden tools, and has successively launched multiple voltage platform products such as 40V, 80V, and 60V; in 2017, the lithium battery smart mounted lawn mower launched by the company began to target the market, so far the company has built relatively complete products for home and commercial use. matrices. In the second half of 2020, the cooperation between the company and Lowe's underwent major adverse adjustments, which put pressure on the company's revenue in the short term, but subsequent companies further improved the stability of operations by developing diversified channels.
The garden tool industry has a long history. Currently, garden tools (OPE) are in the transition stage to lithium electrification. At the beginning, they were mainly hand tools, and traditional fuel power and AC power products were developed with technological progress. However, fuel power products have relatively poor usage experience (noise, exhaust, etc.), and AC power products have certain disadvantages in terms of operating radius, all of which have pain points that are difficult to ignore. In recent years, with the development of the domestic NEV industry, the domestic NEV industry chain has been further improved, and the price of lithium battery cells has dropped significantly, and the trend of lithium batteries replacing fuel/AC power has continued to strengthen.
Fuel OPE still occupies a major share of the global market. Lithium battery replacement is gradually being carried out. According to Quanfeng Holdings prospectus data, the global OPE market size in 2020 was 25 billion US dollars, of which the fuel category was 16.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 66%, and the lithium battery (cordless) class accounted for 14%. From this, it can be seen that the penetration rate of lithium battery OPE is still at a low level. We believe that as environmental regulations become stricter in various countries and the price of lithium battery OPE products continues to decline as costs decline, the replacement of fuel products may accelerate.
The company has improved its product layout in the household sector and is actively developing the second commercial curve. Currently, Glebo's household products include lawn mowers, lawn mowers, cleaners, etc., and innovatively develops multiple battery pack power platforms. As a result, it is possible to form an ecosystem with battery packs as the core, and customer stickiness and repurchase possibilities have been greatly enhanced. On the commercial side, the company launched the lithium battery commercial lawn mower OptiMusZ, and further launched a full range of handheld, hand push, and mounted products in 2023. It also launched a mobile energy storage device to support commercial products to solve the “mileage anxiety” of greening and gardening companies.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect that in 2024-2026, the company will achieve net profit of 3/47/570 million yuan, respectively, +163%/57%/23% year-on-year, respectively. We used the comparable company valuation method. According to iFind's consistent profit forecast, the average PE value of comparable companies in 2024-2025 was 20.3/17.3 times, respectively, while the company's 24-25 PE was 23.8/15.2 times, respectively, and the company's 24-25 PE was slightly higher than the average of comparable companies. Considering that the North American OPE industry is expected to begin the inventory replenishment cycle, the industry's prosperity is expected to increase, and coverage is given for the first time, giving a “holding” rating.
Risk warning
Foreign OPE demand falls short of expectations, worsening competition patterns, changes in trade policies, etc., and the risk of rising operating costs.