Company announcement: NIO's 2024Q1 revenue was 9.91 billion yuan, -7.2%/-42.1% year-on-month, respectively.
Of this, vehicle sales revenue was 8.38 billion yuan, -9.1%/-45.7%, respectively. Q1 gross margin was 4.9%, +3.4/-2.6 pct month-on-month, respectively; gross margin of vehicle sales was 9.2%, and +4.1/-2.7 pct, respectively. 2024Q1 operating loss was $5.39 billion, and adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was $4.9 billion ($4.15 billion for 23Q1 and $48.0 billion for 22Q4). As of March 31, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and long-term term deposits amounted to $45.3 billion ($57.3 billion at the end of 2023Q4).
2024Q1 performance fell slightly short of expectations. 1) Revenue: The main reason for the month-on-month decline in revenue was a decline in delivery volume and an increase in the share of low-priced models. 2024Q1 delivered a total of 30,000 vehicles, -3.2%/-39.9% year-on-month, respectively. Judging from the sales structure, the lowest-priced ET5+ET5T accounted for 37.2% of sales, accounting for an increase of 6.6pct month-on-month; the most expensive ES8 sales accounted for 6.1% of sales, accounting for a 4.9pct month-on-month decline. The company's average bicycle revenue fell to 278,900 yuan month-on-month, -6.2%/-9.6% month-on-month respectively. The company expects delivery volume of 54-56,000 vehicles in 2024Q2, +129.6% ~ +138.1% year-on-year. The corresponding June delivery is expected to be 178-19,800 vehicles. 2) Gross profit margin:
The reason for the year-on-year increase in gross margin was a decrease in the cost of materials per unit; the main reason for the month-on-month decline was a change in product structure and an increase in the share of low-priced products. At the same time, due to Q1, there are many sales promotions for older products. 3) Cost ratio: 2024Q1 R&D expenses were 2,864 billion yuan, -6.9%/-27.9%, respectively; R&D expenses were 28.9%, +0.1/+5.7pct; SG&A expenses were 2,997 billion yuan, +22.5%/-24.6% compared to the same period, and the cost rate was 30.2%, +7.3/+7.0 pct, respectively.
3) Under the influence of the above combined factors, the company's 2024Q1 operating loss was 5.39 billion yuan, the adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was 4.90 billion yuan, the loss increased month-on-month, and the bicycle loss (calculated from adjusted net loss/sales volume) was 163,000 yuan (2023Q1 was -134,000 yuan, and 2023Q4 was -96,000 yuan).
Launch a new brand, Ledao, and take on the heavy responsibility of increasing sales. Ledao Auto was officially unveiled on May 15, 2024, positioning itself in the mainstream home market. The first product, the mid-size SUV L60, was unveiled and pre-orders began. The core selling points: safety+space and comfort+energy supplementation system+driving experience+smart driving experience. The pre-sale price is 21,900 yuan. It is expected to be officially launched in September. The company expects to launch a second medium to large SUV next year to meet the needs of different families.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Due to increased market competition, we lowered the company's net profit forecast attributable to common shareholders in 2024-2026 to -182.4/-88.1/-1.99 billion yuan (-131.72/-21.1/1,731 billion yuan). Given the comprehensive layout of the company's core technology and the barriers created by circle marketing, we still maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New car sales fall short of expectations; industry price wars exceed expectations, etc.