Introduction to this report:
As the top summer films are scheduled one after another, the company is expected to benefit from rising schedule expectations, and the company will participate in the production and distribution of many summer movies, and the increase in performance brought about by the content is expected to become an important margin.
Key points of investment:
The 2024 summer program is expected to become the company's “bonus” program. On the one hand, box office expectations are expected to continue to rise as the top summer movies are scheduled, and the company's theatrical business is expected to directly benefit; on the other hand, the company participated in the production and distribution of at least 3 summer movies, and there were almost no summer movies in 2023, which made the content an important increase in the third quarter's results. We keep our previous profit forecast unchanged. We expect EPS to be 0.69/0.81/0.93 yuan in 2024-2026, maintain the target price of 18.52 yuan, and maintain our holdings increase rating.
The summer program's headline films have entered an intensive schedule. According to the information on movies to be screened on the Cat Eye App, the reality-themed film “Retrograde Life” directed and directed by Xu Zheng is scheduled to be screened on August 9, 2024; in addition, “Demystified” directed by Chen Sicheng's new film, “Declassified” directed by Chen Sicheng, and various other films including “Silence,” “Rebirth”, and “Scaling” will all be screened in the summer program; in addition, “Under a Stranger Things” is scheduled to be screened in the summer program; in addition, “Under a Stranger Things” is scheduled to be screened in the summer program; in addition, “Under a Stranger Things””, “The Legend”, “The White Snake: Floating”, and “A Small Shop by the Clouds” have all been completed Schedule.
It is expected to participate in the production and distribution of many summer headlining films. According to data from Cat's Eye Pro Edition, the company's main summer movies include “I Don't Want to Be Your Friends” and “White Snake:
“Ukusheng” and “Murder” are expected to participate in the production and distribution of more leading films as the films are finalized and release notices are announced. In addition, the company's reserve film projects include “Tang Detective 1900,” “Accidental Murder 3,” “We Live in Nanjing,” “There Are Clouds Like You,” and “Tricking to Like You”. Subsequent content will be an important marginal growth point for the company's performance.
The summer program is about to enter the peak movie season. The summer program is from June 1 to August 31. Usually, the period with the highest demand for movie viewing is from late June to mid-August. During this period, students are on vacation, and many blockbuster movies are screened. With the help of internet promotion, high-quality films can easily stimulate enthusiasm for watching movies. Since 2017, the regular opening of cinemas has had at least one film grossing over 3 billion yuan in summer, including “Wolf Warrior 2” (5.7 billion yuan), “Desperate” (5 billion yuan), “The Girl Who Disappeared” (3.5 billion yuan), “I Am Not a Medicine Man”, “Walking the Moon Alone”, and “Babai” (all grossing 3.1 billion yuan). The 2023 summer program had a record high box office of 20.6 billion yuan, and the number of movie viewers also reached a record high, showing that high-quality content can still drive viewers into cinemas. The 2024 summer program has no shortage of top content, and the overall quality is expected to surpass 2023. The company ranks first in the national film investment market and has benefited the most from the increase in performance brought about by the increase in the box office market.
Risk warning: Movie box office falls short of expectations, uncertain movie schedule, etc.