Goldman Sachs Reaffirms September Rate Cut Forecast, Downplays Fed's 'Hawkish Surprise'
Goldman Sachs Reaffirms September Rate Cut Forecast, Downplays Fed's 'Hawkish Surprise'
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its forecast for two interest rate cuts in 2024, commencing in September, following the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting.
高盛重申其預測，預計2024年將進行兩次利率削減，從9月開始，這是在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）6月會議後發表的。
Despite the Federal Reserve's June dot plot presenting "a hawkish surprise" with a median projection of just one cut in 2024, contrary to market expectations of two, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle believes this does not rule out a September cut.
儘管聯儲局的六月點陣圖呈現出“一個鷹派的驚喜”，僅預計2024年削減一箇中位數，與市場預期的兩個相反，但高盛經濟學家大衛·梅里克爾認爲，這並不排除在9月份削減利率的可能性。
Cumulative Progress On Inflation
通貨膨脹的累積進展
Mericle highlighted that Powell noted the cumulative progress on inflation, which has fallen from a peak of 7% to 2.7%.
梅里克爾強調，鮑威爾指出了通脹的累積進展，從7%的峯值下降到2.7%。
The FOMC revised its statement to acknowledge "modest" progress toward the 2% target, a shift from the previous language indicating "a lack of" progress. Powell's remarks reinforced the Fed's recognition of ongoing improvements in inflation data.
FOMC修訂其聲明承認"逐漸取得的"2%目標的進展，這是從先前表明"沒有"進展的語言上的轉變。鮑威爾的言論加強了聯儲局對通脹數據持續改善的認識。
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the lowest monthly inflation rate in eight months for the Producer Price Index, which tumbled 0.2% from April 2024 to May 2024, well below expectations.
週四，勞工統計局報告生產者價格指數的月度通脹率爲8個月來最低點，從2024年4月降至2024年5月的-0.2%，遠低於預期。
Read also: Ice Cold Producer Inflation Data Sparks Economist Reactions: 'More Data In The Correct Direction'
還可閱讀：冰冷的製造業通貨膨脹數據引發經濟學家的反應：“更多正確的數據”
Traders Align With A Two-Cut Scenario
交易員與兩次削減情況相符
Following the FOMC meeting, market participants now assign a 64% probability to a rate cut in September and factor in cumulative 52 basis points of cuts by year-end, implying two fully priced rate cuts.
在FOMC會議後，市場參與者現在給9月份降息分配了64%的概率，並考慮到到年底將削減52個點子，意味着兩個完全定價的降息。
This increased optimism towards the likelihood for rate cuts pushed bond yields down and major U.S. equity indices to hit record highs on Thursday.
對削減利率的概率的增加推低了債券收益率，使得美國主要股指在週四達到歷史新高。
Long-dated Treasury bonds, as tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), are up over 2% for the week, eyeing the strongest performing week since January.
根據iShares 20+年期國債ETF（納斯達克：TLT）追蹤結果顯示，長期國債上漲超過2%，目前爲止是自1月以來表現最強勁的一週。
Mericle stated that if the next three rounds of inflation data align with recent trends, the Fed is likely to proceed with a rate cut.
梅里克爾表示，如果接下來三輪的通脹數據與當前趨勢相符，聯儲局可能會繼續削減利率。
According to Goldman Sachs, Powell made three significant comments during his press conference:
根據高盛的說法，鮑威爾在他的新聞發佈會上發表了三次重要的評論:
- Labor Market Conditions: Powell indicated that labor market data would need to be worse than the FOMC's current expectations to strengthen the case for a rate cut. This comes after slight increases in the FOMC's unemployment rate projections for 2025 (4.2%) and 2026 (4.1%).
- Neutral Rate Estimates: Powell downplayed the relevance of neutral rate estimates for near-term monetary policy decisions. The median longer-run or neutral rate dot increased to 2.75%, with three participants adjusting their estimates higher. However, Powell emphasized that the neutral rate is a "theoretical" long-run concept that doesn't guide near-term policy decisions.
- Framework Review: Powell mentioned that the next framework review would begin later this year, potentially covering the Fed's communications strategy and other topics.
- 勞動力市場條件：鮑威爾指出，勞動力市場數據需要比FOMC當前的預期更糟糕，才有助於增強降息的案例。這是在FOMC對2025年（4.2%）和2026年（4.1%）的失業率預測略有增加後發表的言論。
- 中立率估計值：鮑威爾貶低了短期貨幣政策決策與中性率估計的相關性。中性率的中位數長期點升至2.75%，其中三位參與者將其估計值上調。不過，鮑威爾強調，中性率是一個“理論上”的長期概念，不會引導短期政策決策。
- 框架評估：鮑威爾提到，下一個框架評估將於今年晚些時候開始，可能涵蓋聯儲局的通信策略和其他話題。
Read now: How May's Inflation Slowdown Could Influence Fed's Next Move: Insights From 6 Economists
立即閱讀：五月通貨膨脹的放緩如何影響聯儲局的下一步行動：來自6位經濟學家的見解
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
這張圖片是通過Midjourney使用人工智能生成的。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。