Consumer Outlook 'Healthy' As Labor Demand Points To Wage Growth: Goldman Sachs
Consumer Outlook 'Healthy' As Labor Demand Points To Wage Growth: Goldman Sachs
The consumer outlook for the remainder of 2024 appears to be robust as a firm labor demand indicates higher wages that will lead to more disposable personal income, according to a Goldman Sachs analyst.
高盛分析師指出，隨着勞動力需求的增加，消費者的前景在2024年剩餘時間看上去很強勁，這將導致更多的可支配個人收入。
Despite a higher unemployment rate in April, there is a surplus of 1.6 million jobs in the U.S. that is expected to result in higher wages and greater consumer spending, Kate McShane noted.
凱特·麥克夏恩指出，儘管4月份失業率較高，但美國存在160萬個就業崗位富餘，預計會導致工資更高和消費更多。
"Our economists view 2024 consumer outlook as healthy, with the employment backdrop supportive of robust wage growth led DPI (disposable personal income) growth forecast for the year," she wrote in a note on Wednesday.
她在週三的一份報告中寫道：“我們的經濟學家認爲，就業形勢支持有利於強勁的工資增長，帶動全年的可支配個人收入（DPI）增長預測，因此2024年的消費者前景是健康的。”
She said the employment scenario boosts discretionary income and spending for consumers, expecting DPI to grow 4.7% this year, versus Goldman Sachs' prior 4.8% outlook for 2024.
她說就業情況提高了消費者的可自由支配收入和支出，預計DPI今年將增長4.7％，高於高盛此前2024年 DIP 的增長預期。
Also read: US Inflation Eases More Than Expected In May, Boosts 2024 Rate Cut Prospects Ahead Of Wednesday's Fed Meeting
還需閱讀：因通脹更低於預期，支持2024年前的加息前景，在本週的聯邦儲備委員會會議前提振了市場
This will translate into discretionary cash income reaching 3.4%, down from a prior expectation of 3.7% as of December 2023, as Goldman Sachs expects lower mortgage equity withdrawals and borrowings that will prompt 4% growth in household income, McShane wrote. That outlook is down from a 4.2% growth expected in December 2023.
麥克夏恩寫道，這將導致可自由支配現金收入達到3.4％，低於2013年12月之前的3.7％的預期，因爲高盛預計更少的抵押權益提取和借貸，這將促使家庭收入增長4％。這個前景較之前的4.2%的增長預期有所下降。
Still, financial obligations are expected to grow 8.5% this year, while essential spending is set to increase 2.9%.
不過，金融義務預計今年將增長8.5％，而必要支出預計將增長2.9％。
"Having said that, we note that risks around cashflow/spending are skewed to the downside given it is unlikely the saving rate declines much more from here, and there are no upside income/spending catalysts in the pipeline," she added.
她補充道：“話雖如此，我們注意到流動性/支出風險的風險是有偏差的，因爲不太可能從這裏進一步降低儲蓄率，並且在管道中沒有上行的收入/支出催化劑。”
McShane noted that Goldman Sachs expects the lower-income consumer to cut back on purchases this year as a result of inflation, but the higher-income consumer is expected to spend more, according to the bank's HundredX analysis.
麥克夏恩指出，高盛預計低收入消費者由於通脹將削減今年購買力，但根據銀行的百倍分析，高收入消費者預計將支出更多。
McShane recommends stocks that are "insulated from risk factors" due to low-price discipline, volume growth drivers such as innovation and strong revenue growth, such as Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM), SharkNinja (NYSE:SN) and Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL).
麥克夏恩推薦那些由於低價策略和創新等因素帶來的成交量增長和強勁營收增長而“受到風險因素影響較小”的股票，例如可口可樂（NYSE：KO）、高露潔（NYSE：CL）、Sprouts Farmers Market（NASDAQ：SFM）、SharkNinja（NYSE：SN）和皇家加勒比郵輪（NYSE：RCL）。
Read now: Economy Takes Center Stage In 2024: Can Upbeat US Consumer Sentiment Reshape Poll Results?
此外：經濟成爲2024年的中心舞臺：樂觀的美國消費者情緒是否能夠塑造民意調查結果？
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。