A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday (June 12) showed that by 2030, global crude oil production led by the United States will surge and is expected to exceed demand growth, pushing idle capacity to unprecedented levels and even possibly overturning the management of the international crude oil market by OPEC+.

This prediction prompted Fatih Birol, the Director of the International Energy Agency, to issue a stern warning to oil giants. He suggested that the world's largest energy giants adjust their business strategies to adapt to the changes that are happening.

In this monthly market report, the IEA stated that global demand for oil will slow down, ultimately peaking at nearly 106 million barrels per day by 2030, slightly higher than the 102 million barrels/day for 2023.

At the same time, the IEA expects that by 2030, total oil production will surge to nearly 114 million barrels per day, 8 million barrels higher than the expected global demand. This represents an idle capacity that will reach "unprecedented levels" - except for the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

This represents an idle capacity that will reach "unprecedented levels" - except for the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Demand is about to peak.

This report comes at a time when countries are seeking to get rid of fossil fuels, and the momentum for clean and energy-efficient technologies is growing. For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for about 80% of global energy supply. IEA now expects this proportion to fall to about 73% by 2030.

These dynamics could have "significant implications" for the international oil market.

Fatih Birol of the IEA stated in a statement that "global oil demand growth is slowing down and will peak in 2030."

Among them, oil demand in developed economies will further decline. The IEA said that by 2030, oil demand in developed economies will drop from nearly 46 million barrels per day last year to below 43 million barrels per day.

In addition, Birol also pointed out, "This report shows that serious oversupply will occur in this decade, and oil giants need to ensure that their business strategies and plans are ready for the upcoming changes. "

IEA plays the 'opponent game' with EIA.

Interestingly, according to a report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday (June 11), the situation in the crude oil market appears to be another scene.

In its latest release of the June "Short-term Energy Outlook" report, the EIA further raised its expectations for global oil demand and predicted that global oil demand this year may hit a record high, and global oil demand is expected to rise again next year.

At the same time, the institution also lowered its forecast for global oil production this year.

OPEC+ recently announced a plan to increase production from the fourth quarter, later than expected by the EIA. The EIA said that OPEC+'s delay in increasing production will cause global crude oil inventories to fall in the first quarter of next year and bring upward pressure on oil prices.

International oil prices have rebounded in recent days, and several Wall Street banks are increasingly bullish on oil prices. The EIA's report has added fuel to the market's positive sentiment.