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Is Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) A Risky Investment?

Is Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) A Risky Investment?

世紀鋁業(納斯達克:CENX)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  06/09 20:42

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

當David Iben說“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本永久損失。”時,他的話很恰當。在我們思考一家公司的風險性時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務負擔過多可能導致滅頂之災。與許多其他公司一樣,Century Aluminum Company (納斯達克股票代碼:CENX) 也使用債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否會使公司更加冒險。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業成長的一種工具,但是如果企業無法償還其債權人的錢,那麼它就完全受制於債權人。最終,如果公司無法履行其法定債務還款義務,股東可能面臨空手而回的風險。然而,更頻繁的情況是,公司必須以折價的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東權益,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價的資本,特別是當它取代具有高回報率再投資能力的公司的稀釋時。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是看看它的現金和債務狀況。

What Is Century Aluminum's Debt?

什麼是Century Aluminum的債務?

As you can see below, Century Aluminum had US$528.0m of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$93.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$434.5m.

正如下圖所示,截至2024年3月,Century Aluminum的債務總額爲5.28億美元,與前一年基本相同。你可以點擊圖表查看更詳細的信息。然而,它確實有9,350萬美元的現金來抵消這筆債務,導致淨債務約爲4.345億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:CENX Debt to Equity History June 9th 2024
納斯達克股票代碼爲CENX的股票的負債權益歷史數據截至2024年6月9日

How Strong Is Century Aluminum's Balance Sheet?

Century Aluminum的資產負債表情況如何?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Century Aluminum had liabilities of US$468.9m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$793.9m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$93.5m as well as receivables valued at US$167.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.00b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表中看到,Century Aluminum有價值4.689億美元的負債在一年內到期,而超過一年的負債爲7.939億美元。抵消這些負面影響,它擁有9,350萬美元的現金以及價值1.67億美元、在12個月內到期的應收賬款。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總額還要高10億美元左右。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$1.47b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Century Aluminum's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Century Aluminum's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

相對於市值爲14.7億美元,這種赤字是相當大的,因此它確實表明股東應該密切關注Century Aluminum的債務使用情況。如果其債權人要求其支持其資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋風險。分析債務水平時,資產負債表是開始的明顯位置。但決定Century Aluminum能否保持健康的資產負債表往前看,相比其他任何事情,未來的盈利情況更加決定。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費報告,其中顯示了分析師的利潤預測。

Over 12 months, Century Aluminum made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$2.1b, which is a fall of 18%. We would much prefer see growth.

在過去的12個月中,Century Aluminum在EBIT水平上虧損,並且其營業收入下降到21億美元,下降了18%。我們更喜歡看到成長。

Caveat Emptor

買方自負。

Not only did Century Aluminum's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost US$200k at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. However, it doesn't help that it burned through US$19m of cash over the last year. So to be blunt we think it is risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Century Aluminum , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

在過去的12個月中,Century Aluminum的營業收入不僅下降了,而且在利息和稅前收益上也是負的。事實上,它在EBIT水平上虧損了200,000美元。考慮到上述負債,這並沒有給我們帶來太多信心,認爲企業應該使用這麼多債務。因此,我們認爲它的資產負債表有點吃緊,雖然不至於無法挽救。然而,去年它的現金流減少了1900萬美元,這並沒有幫助它。所以坦率地說,我們認爲它存在風險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時要關注的地方。但並不是所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。我們已經確定了3個警告信號,分析並了解它們應該是你投資過程的一部分。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有負債負擔的股票的投資者,則今天就可以發現我們的獨家淨現金增長股清單。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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